Sitrep for June 13-16, 2025 (as of 6 a.m. UTC+3)

Frontline Situation Update

In the Sumy region, the Russian army has, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, fully captured the village of Yablunivka. There has been no independent confirmation yet, although various sources, including Ukrainian ones, have reported fighting there. Simultaneously, fighting is ongoing in the village of Yunakivka. At a briefing, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy noted that the depth of the Russian incursion into the Sumy region currently stands at about 7 km [4.3 mi], and that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are holding their defensive positions there.

In the Pokrovsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing to the northeast of Pokrovsk, in the area of the villages of Nova Poltavka, Shevchenko Pershe and Malynivka. The Russian MoD also announced the capture of the village of Koptieve. Northwest of this sector, OSINT researcher Clément Molin counted approximately 1,000 strikes using FAB bombs equipped with the Universal Gliding and Correction Module (UMPK) on satellite images from May 25 to June 12—this massive aerial support is helping create a northeastern "wedge" or "pincer" that could be used to semi-encircle Pokrovsk.

In the south of Donetsk region, Russian troops advanced near the village of Burlatske (south of the village of Komar). Additionally, in the Novopavlivka direction, the RuAF officially reported the capture of the village of Zelenyi Kut. Given the confirmed presence of Russian soldiers in Novoukrainka, it is inferred they are also in Zelenyi Kut and Oleksiivka. Ukrainian military analyst Kostiantyn Mashovets believes the Ukrainian army will likely have to withdraw to the Novopavlivka-Piddubne line.

This is due, first, to the natural water barriers: the Vovcha River and its tributaries, the Solona and Mokri Yaly, form a defensive line. The latter two also form a small salient, the wider part of which is already under Russian control—making the remaining area hard to defend and more advantageous for Ukraine to withdraw behind these rivers. Second, terrain changes play a key role: after the villages of Zelenyi Hai and Filia, the terrain becomes more elevated, making it much easier to defend than the lowlands around Komar.

Pro-Russian Telegram channels report that the villages of Horikhove, Andriivka, Kostiantynopil, Zelenyi Kut, Oleksiivka, Bahatyr and Odradne have been captured. At the moment, their maps of this direction appear more accurate than those of DeepState. The RuAF are also reported to have advanced into the village of Komar—with the Russian MoD already declaring it captured and releasing footage of strikes on Ukrainian armored vehicles, including an M113 armored personnel carrier, a BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicle and a MaxxPro MRAP. Pro-Russian military blogger Romanov referred to the capture of Komar as having been taken "on credit."

The Telegram channel Slivochny Kapriz described these advances in a markedly more optimistic tone than what is shown in videos released by Ukrainian troops. The video footage shows soldiers being systematically hit by drone strikes, with the assault lacking any proper cover. This stands in contrast to videos of AFU’s armored vehicles. Despite suffering heavy losses, the RuAF continue to make slow progress. Notably, Russian forces are increasingly relying on infantry assaults or motorized storming operations.

The coverage of the situation in Komar can be contrasted to how the same source presents the fighting around the village of Krasne Pershe, located north of the village of Dvorichne in the Kupiansk direction. There, Slivochny Kapriz draws conclusions about Russian advances from Ukrainian footage, which mainly shows strikes on forest lines, with targets obscured by foliage. While Slivochny Kapriz regularly reports more Russian advances than can be independently confirmed, in some cases, the frontline it depicts on its map appears closer to reality (as far as it can be assessed) than that shown on the Ukrainian project’s map.

Western Assistance

Over the past weekend, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced the deployment of "counter-UAV" systems to the Middle East, which had to be "taken" from Ukraine. We believe this refers to the 20,000 APKWS rockets produced for Ukraine under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which were redirected from the factory, not removed from stocks already in Ukraine.

At the same time, the debate around the delivery of a Patriot system from Israel has intensified. Israel’s ambassador to Ukraine, Michael Brodsky, stated that the system had been delivered to Kyiv, whereas President Zelenskyy denied having received it. According to Zelenskyy, negotiations—prior to the Hamas attack on Israel in the fall of 2023—were about delivery of Barak-8 air defense systems, jointly developed by Israel and India, but those plans could not be implemented. Now, it is worth noting that the Patriot system, decommissioned by the Israeli army, is undergoing modernization in the US, and in light of the above, may still be transferred to Ukraine, although this scenario seems less certain than previously.

The transfer of the bodies of fallen soldiers continues. As of the evening of June 16, Russia had handed over the bodies of 6,057 deceased Ukrainian servicemen, while Ukraine had returned 78 to Russia. This was the "final stage of repatriation efforts"; however, according to Vladimir Medinsky, prisoner exchanges are still ongoing.

Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine will decide whether to pursue negotiations with Russia after the PoW exchange is completed. He also reported preparations for a meeting with Donald Trump at the G7 Summit, which will include a discussion about further negotiations with Russia. Meanwhile, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha told journalists that Ukraine is not interested in continuing talks with Russia unless a substantive ceasefire is on the table.

Ukrainian and Russian Strikes

On June 15, Ukrainian drones attacked a UAV manufacturing plant located in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Russia’s constituent Republic of Tatarstan. Mediazona, an independent Russian media outlet, geolocated the resulting fire near the Aurus and Sollers automobile factory buildings. According to Rustam Minnikhanov, head of Tatarstan, debris from one of the drones fell onto a checkpoint building of the automobile plant, killing two people and injuring twelve others.

On June 9 and June 15, the Ukrainian Air Force reported the use of Kinzhal hypersonic missiles by the Russian Aerospace Forces. It is worth noting that these were the first Kinzhal missile launches since Dec. 31, 2024.

During the June 15 combined attack, Russian forces also used Iskander short-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and Shahed-136 (Geran-2) loitering munitions. According to pro-Russian propagandist Yuri Podolyaka, the target of the strike was an oil refinery in Kremenchuk, Poltava region, which was reportedly hit by at least one Kinzhal missile. The head of the Poltava Regional Military Administration, Volodymyr Kogut, stated that air defense systems intercepted most of the incoming aerial targets, but energy and agricultural infrastructure was damaged.

On June 13, Ukrainian forces struck a Russian military convoy in the occupied city of Makiivka in the Donetsk region using a HIMARS MLRS. The convoy, consisting of four PAZ buses and a KAMAZ truck, sustained heavy damage. Video footage from the scene shows the bodies of soldiers and clear evidence of prefabricated shrapnel damage on the vehicles. According to sources cited by the Astra Telegram channel, eight Russian service members were killed and another 12 were wounded. In addition, a civilian couple traveling in the opposite direction in a Honda Accord were also killed in the strike—an incident that appears to have been a tragic accident and can be considered, under the laws of war, collateral damage.

That same day, a Russian Sukhoi Su-25 Grach ground attack aircraft crashed near Soledar, roughly seven kilometers [4 mi] from the frontline. Videos show one Su-25 launching unguided air-to-surface rockets and deploying decoy flares from an altitude of around 150 meters [500 ft], followed by a second Su-25 firing a similar rocket salvo that flew past the lead aircraft. Moments later, the lead jet appears to bank sharply to the right, begins to break apart midair, and crashes. The pilot reportedly survived. Military analysts noted that rockets launched from such an altitude and distance are unlikely to reach their intended targets and may have been fired for reporting or propaganda purposes. Attempting to get closer to the frontline would risk exposure to Ukrainian air defenses.

On June 14, Flag Day in the United States, the official account of the US Department of Defense shared an image on social media that sparked confusion. The graphic appeared to show the Russian flag, though it was in fact an attempt to overlay the red and white stripes of the American flag over a blue background—an apparent design misstep.

Also on June 14, the US Army held a military parade in Washington, D.C., to mark its 250th anniversary. Ruslan Leviev shared footage of the event via his Telegram channel. A livestream commentary from Russian photographer and blogger Evgeny Feldman is also available online.

We need your support to continue our efforts. Please consider making a monthly donation to CIT through our fundraising page or Patreon.