Sitrep for March 14-17, 2025 (as of 10:30 a.m. UTC+3) 

Frontline Situation Update

In the Kursk region, the remaining part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine's bridgehead has not been fully cleared in recent days—two sections remain under Ukrainian control. These areas, less than 10 km [6.2 mi] wide, are highly vulnerable to Russian fire. The AFU continue to hold this elevated ground, as shown on the DeepState map. This positioning allows for better control of the area, preventing Russian advances into the Sumy region. It also enables Ukrainian forces to construct fortifications, establish defensive positions and repel Russian saboteurs attacking the lowland villages of Basivka and Novenke. We believe it is unlikely that the AFU will retain this remaining bridgehead for long, meaning the Russian Armed Forces will likely clear it completely soon. We still maintain that the Ukrainian withdrawal was deliberate and organized—evidenced by the lack of reports of significant fighting, the small number of captured soldiers (Russia would have showcased any significant numbers) and the small amount of abandoned military equipment. It is worth noting that in some cases, Ukrainian forces had to abandon equipment behind due to strikes on bridges. As expected, claims of a "pocket" where thousands of Ukrainian troops were allegedly surrounded were never confirmed, even by pro-Russian Telegram channels.

The Russian side is now attempting to frame events in the occupied territory as a "Russian Bucha." Propagandists are citing various civilian deaths, leading audiences to believe that Ukrainian forces were responsible for killing civilians—despite the fact that no proper investigation has been conducted, as such inquiries take significant time. However, comparisons to Bucha are entirely incorrect, even though dozens of civilians died in the occupied areas and the surrounding contested zones during the Kursk operation.

For instance, in two well-documented cases involving the discovery of civilian bodies—one in the basement of a building in the village of Russkoye Porechnoye and another in the church of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye—peaceful residents had sought shelter in structures along the frontline. During the fighting, remaining in those locations was extraordinarily dangerous due to relentless attacks and the inability to freely access food and water. In one case, a deceased individual in Cherkasskoye Porechnoye was likely a bedridden patient who succumbed to dehydration or a lack of medication.

When a village is seized by one side or the other, military forces conduct sweeps, needing to inspect all potential hideouts for enemy soldiers. If troops are convinced no civilians remain in a settlement, they may preemptively toss grenades into basements and through house windows to avoid ambushes. The actual capture, however, is often accompanied by heavy bombardment that all but obliterates any shelters, drastically reducing civilians’ chances of survival.

Forensic examinations can determine the cause of death, but even if it is deemed violent, identifying the perpetrators without witness testimony remains impossible.

In situations where a settlement lingered in a contested zone for an extended period, repeatedly changing hands between opposing forces, locating witnesses is likewise nearly unfeasible. Most likely, they were all hiding together in the same place and may have been killed.

An account has been published from a resident of Pogrebki, alleging that a Ukrainian soldier executed his wife. The story appears to be genuine—unless the man in the video is a professional actor. Despite ongoing combat, the elderly couple had stayed in their home, descending into the basement during attacks. When Ukrainian forces swept through the village, a soldier lobbed a grenade into the basement, but the man and woman survived and emerged at the soldier’s command. According to the surviving husband, the soldier shouted, "You’re killing our people!" (presumably referring to the murder of Ukrainians in the current war) and shot his wife when she tried to protest. He then attempted to execute the man as well, but his assault rifle jammed.

We believe that the soldier, reportedly around 50 years old, was likely an assault trooper who had not been a professional serviceman before the war—something common on both sides of the frontline. The man was probably under extreme stress, had spent a long time in forward positions with poor supplies and lacked both professional training and the psychological resilience necessary for military personnel. These factors increase the likelihood of murders driven by hatred toward the opposing side, a sense of revenge or suspicions that civilians are aiding the enemy.

If this account is true, then what happened is undoubtedly a war crime. Investigating such cases requires the involvement of authorities from both countries, but we doubt this will be possible anytime soon. In theory, if it were possible to determine which unit was stationed in Pogrebki during those days, the perpetrator might be identified with the help of the surviving witness.

A video has also surfaced showing a civilian killed inside a car on the outskirts of the town of Sudzha and a dead motorcyclist. Judging by the state of decomposition, the bodies had been there for many months. It is likely that these individuals were trying to flee after the fighting began, but determining who exactly killed them is extremely difficult.

It is worth noting that when military personnel take to the roads and set up checkpoints, situations arise where civilians in vehicles attempt to leave a combat zone but do not stop at warning shots, instead trying to break through. This underscores the need for clear identification of civilian vehicles and strict compliance with orders at checkpoints.

Additionally, witness testimonies can be unreliable. A striking example is a video featuring a resident of the Kursk region who, during the occupation, praised the AFU on camera but later, after the de-occupation, claimed that Ukrainian soldiers had beaten them and forced them to shout "Glory to Ukraine!"

Ukrainian and Russian Strikes

Ukrainian forces hit a bridge over the Konka River in the Kherson region, on the left bank of the Dnipro River, collapsing two spans. Notably, the Rossiya-1 [Russia-1] government-owned federal TV channel aired a video of the strike, claiming it was the result of a Russian airstrike using light multipurpose guided missiles (LMUR) fired from a Kamov Ka-52 (Hokum B) attack helicopter.

A video has emerged showing a Shahed-136 (Geran-2) loitering munition being launched from a small SUV. Mark Krutov, editor of the Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty news service, geolocated the launch site near an underground warehouse in the Oryol region that Ukrainian forces had previously attacked in December 2024 and January 2025.

Russia has recently been regularly using 100 or more drones in aerial attacks. On March 15, according to the Ukrainian Air Force, 178 Shahed-136 (Geran-2) loitering munitions and drone-decoys were launched into Ukrainian territory.

On the same day, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine had tested and successfully deployed a new long-range missile, which he referred to as the Dovhyi Neptun (Long Neptune). It appears to be a modernized version of the R-360 Neptune subsonic cruise missile, with a range of up to a thousand kilometers [621 mi].

Throughout 2024, the Russian Ministry of Defense has repeatedly reported the interception of the Neptune-MD missile, about which no further details are available.

In the early hours of March 14, the AFU launched a strike on an oil refinery in Tuapse, causing a large fire. In videos of the strike, the distinct sound of a jet engine can be heard, suggesting that the attack was likely not carried out by a drone. Tuapse is approximately 500 km [310 mi] from the nearest area where Ukrainian forces could be stationed, leading many analysts to believe that this strike was the result of the successful use of the aforementioned missile.

Ukraine’s ability to produce a missile with such a range is highly significant, as international agreements restrict the sale of missiles with a range exceeding 300 km [186 mi], preventing Ukraine from receiving them through foreign supplies. Whether this new weapon will impact the course of the war depends on the quantity produced. Estimates of Ukraine’s potential production capacity vary widely, ranging from 10 to 60 missiles per month, but these figures do not seem well-substantiated to us.

Global Headlines

According to sources cited by The New York Times, the United States has informed European officials of its decision to withdraw from an international group that investigated the leadership of Russia and its allies for the crime of aggression committed against Ukraine. The group’s mandate included investigating actions by the governments of Russia, Belarus, North Korea and Iran that fall under the category of crimes of aggression—which are defined under international law as violations of another country’s sovereignty that do not constitute self-defense. The Biden administration joined the group in 2023, and the US remained its only non-European participant. The Trump administration justified the withdrawal by citing the "need to reallocate resources." This decision signals Washington’s abandonment of efforts to hold Putin accountable for crimes committed against Ukrainians.

Amid US government budget cuts, a leading unit that helped rescue Ukrainian children abducted by Russia has been disbanded. A team of specialists from Yale University, using open-source technology, assisted in the repatriation of hundreds of Ukrainian children, but its funding has now been halted.

Trump ordered maximum staff cuts at seven federal agencies, including the US Agency for Global Media (USAGM), which oversees Voice of America and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. The Trump administration accused Voice of America of producing "radical propaganda" and "anti-Trump content." Freelance editorial staff were dismissed, while many full-time employees were placed on leave. The work of this agency had global significance, as independent media in impoverished regions often lacked funding, and outlets like RFE/RL remained the only source of alternative information for locals.

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