Sitrep for May 16-20, 2025 (as of 8:30 a.m. UTC+3)

Frontline Situation Update

Ukrainian forces are continuing their attacks near the village of Tyotkino in Russia’s Kursk region, attempting to breach anti-tank barriers with armored vehicles. In one instance, a Bradley infantry fighting vehicle was reportedly destroyed almost immediately after crossing the border. The Armed Forces of Ukraine have yet to gain a foothold in the border area, and as previously noted, the strategic rationale behind these operations remains unclear. The fighting has produced no discernible results: establishing a new bridgehead appears unfeasible—nor was Ukraine able to fully capitalize on its previous positions in the Kursk region. The assaults have failed to divert Russian troops, as the advance of Russian forces in the Sumy region continues at the same pace. These efforts have come at the cost of inevitable Ukrainian losses.

The aforementioned operations likely contributed to the scandal that broke out last week within Ukraine’s military. Oleksandr Shyrshyn, commander of the 1st Mechanized Battalion of the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade "Magura," submitted a resignation request and accused his superiors of assigning "idiotic missions" that resulted only in the loss of personnel and equipment. This same brigade is active along the Kursk and Sumy directions. In July 2024, Shyrshyn had already publicly criticized the high command, stating that after the fall of Avdiivka, his battalion was nearly encircled near the village of Prohres due to leadership errors. According to Shyrshyn, unnecessary losses were incurred as a result of a "not one step back" order.

While it is not uncommon for military personnel to air grievances publicly in moments of frustration—potentially overstating the issues—it is also possible that Shyrshyn had exhausted all internal avenues to resolve the conflict. It remains difficult to assess the accuracy of the commander’s claims about conditions within the brigade, as expert opinions on the matter are divided.

OSINT analyst Def Mon, who had consistently criticized Oleksandr Syrskyi even before he was appointed Commander-in-Chief, has pointed to issues of micromanagement at the tactical level by the General Staff. Similar criticism had already appeared in the public domain earlier. By contrast, Ukrainian officer Robert "Madyar" Brovdi spoke out against "airing dirty laundry in public" and stated that such problems should be resolved within the brigade itself. It is worth noting that Brovdi had previously criticized The New York Times for what he saw as a biased interview with Ukrainian marines about heavy losses sustained during fighting on the left bank of the Dnipro, near the village of Krynky. Brovdi himself—like other drone operators—considered the operation fairly effective, as Ukrainian UAVs had managed to destroy a significant amount of Russian military equipment. Our assessment was that the operation was excessively prolonged. The leadership of the 3rd Assault Brigade of the AFU, as well as several other units, did not share Shyrshyn’s position. The AFU General Staff announced the formation of a working group to investigate Shyrshyn’s statements.

Yurii Butusov, military analyst and editor-in-chief of Censor.NET, supported Shyrshyn’s concerns, confirmed that the 1st Battalion was engaged in combat near Tyotkino and reported that Ukrainian forces were attacking in frontal columns—resulting in significant losses due to close surveillance of the area by Russian UAV units.

One possible reason for the renewed incursion by the AFU into the Kursk region may be an attempt to divert the RuAF from their attacks in the Sumy region. However, fighting near the villages of Loknia, Bilovody and Vodolahy continues. According to some reports, Russian forces have taken part of Bilovody, reached the outskirts of Vodolahy and cut the road between the two. Their goal appears to be the seizure of high ground along the Novomykolaivka-Yablunivka-Yunakivka line, which would allow them to control the border area of the region.

Russian serviceman and blogger Andrey Marochko told the TASS news agency of a "strategic success" near the village of Marine in the Sumy region (which the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed had been captured). However, based on his reference to the settlement being 10 km [6.21 mi] from the Russian border, he was likely referring to the AFU-controlled village of Marine southwest of Yunakivka—not the border village of Marine that the pro-Russian Telegram channel WarGonzo claimed had been taken. Moreover, the capture of a village in the border zone is not particularly significant even at the tactical level, as such areas are typically contested: capturing them is relatively easy, but holding them or advancing further is far more difficult. In any case, there is no basis for speaking of a strategic, or even operational, success.

On the western flank of the Toretsk direction, Russian forces have made a tactical breakthrough. It is worth noting that, unlike a strategic breakthrough—which alters the course of a war—or an operational one—which significantly impacts the situation on a given front—a tactical breakthrough refers to localized fighting over a small area of terrain. Russian troops have consolidated their positions near the villages of Oleksandropil (declared captured by the MoD), Novoolenivka, Nova Poltavka and further west, north of the village of Malynivka. This advance appears aimed at strengthening the flanks and may be an attempt to push the AFU several kilometers away from the Pokrovsk-Kostiantynivka highway, with the eventual goal of using this section for logistics.

West of Malynivka—on the eastern flank of the Pokrovsk direction—attacks near the village of Myroliubivka are ongoing.

The Suspilne media outlet published a statement by Bohdan Shevchuk, former commander of the 59th Separate Assault Brigade of the Unmanned Systems Forces, which operates in the Pokrovsk direction. According to Shevchuk, he was dismissed from his post in the early hours of May 16, without warning or explanation. He believes the dismissal may be linked to his decision to withdraw troops from certain positions to save lives—against orders from the command to hold those positions at all costs. Reportedly, the decision to remove him was made directly by General Syrskyi. This was confirmed by DeepState, citing its own sources, which also noted that other brigades in the area are experiencing similar difficulties due to Russian advances. Additionally, Shevchuk was previously involved in a major scandal during the summer of 2024, but an investigation by the General Staff found no grounds for his dismissal at the time.

Based on our observations, additional Russian units have been redeployed to the Pokrovsk-Toretsk sector, a move also reported by Ukrainian military analyst Kostiantyn Mashovets.

Meanwhile, fighting continues in the Toretsk direction, near the villages of Romanivka and Zoria, where the frontline in that sector is gradually leveling out.

In the Novopavlivka (Kurakhove) direction, the RuAF, according to a statement by the MoD, have captured the village of Bahatyr, which lies on the road connecting the cities of Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk. A video was released showing Russian soldiers raising flags and moving freely in various parts of the village. However, the DeepState project denies that Bahatyr has been fully captured, stating that Russian troops frequently make brief incursions into the village to create the impression of a constant presence. In response, the 33rd Separate Mechanized Brigade of the AFU published a video showing the removal of the Russian flag and the raising of a Ukrainian one. Pro-Russian bloggers countered by claiming that the Ukrainian soldiers seen in the video had already been killed. Given the overall frontline situation—and considering that Russian forces are already present in Rozlyv and Kostiantynopil—we believe that Bahatyr has mostly come under Russian control.

In the Lyman direction, there have been no significant changes: fighting continues in the gray zone near the village of Torske.

According to Bloomberg, Putin is confident that Russian forces will be able to break through Ukraine's defenses by the end of the year and take full control of four Ukrainian regions. It is also reported that Russia has allegedly begun a large-scale offensive along the entire frontline. We disagree with this assessment. In our view, the war follows repetitive cycles: offensives eventually lose momentum, leading to pauses used to restore combat capability, replenish artillery ammunition, and regroup forces. During these periods, a relative lull sets in—while fighting continues, territorial changes are minimal. Once forces are replenished, offensives resume, often shifting focus to different sectors of the front. One could say that Russia launches large-scale offensives every two to three months, but we believe it is inaccurate to describe this as a continuous large-scale offensive. Rather, it reflects the cyclical nature of modern warfare. A similar pattern can be observed in Russia’s use of long-range weapons. In the past week or two, missile strikes have nearly ceased, with drone attacks continuing instead. This suggests a period of stockpiling, after which we can expect a renewed wave of missile strikes.

Peace Talks

As we expected, neither the negotiations in Istanbul nor the phone conversation between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump yielded significant results. Meanwhile, Europe continued to issue ultimatums to Putin, all of which he rejected. On May 20, the EU and the United Kingdom imposed a new package of sanctions, targeting, among other things, Russia's shadow fleet.

In anticipation of the phone conversation between Putin and Trump, the heads of state and government of Germany, France, the UK and Italy discussed with the US President the application of further sanctions if Russia failed to demonstrate a serious commitment to a ceasefire and peace negotiations. French President Emmanuel Macron stated that Putin must show his willingness for peace by accepting a 30-day unconditional ceasefire. The Wall Street Journal reported that before speaking with Putin, Trump called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who allegedly asked him to persuade Putin of the need for a personal meeting between the leaders of Russia and Ukraine. Following the phone conversation, Putin and Trump issued statements, but we find nothing substantial about the war in Ukraine in them. The only meaningful outcome of the discussion appears to be an agreement on a new 9-for-9 prisoner exchange, as reported by Yury Ushakov, Putin's foreign policy aide. Likewise, the only concrete result from the Istanbul negotiations was Turkey's proposal to facilitate a large-scale 1,000- for-1,000 POW exchange between Russia and Ukraine.

Ukrainian and Russian Strikes

In the early hours of May 18, Russia carried out its most massive air attack on Ukrainian territory to date, deploying 273 strike UAVs and decoy drones against the Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk regions.

On the morning of May 17, Russian forces struck a passenger van at the entrance to the town of Bilopillia in the Sumy region, reportedly using a Lancet UAV. The vehicle was transporting civilians. As a result of the attack, nine people were killed and seven others were injured, three of them critically. The blue bus—clearly marked as a civilian vehicle—had large white lettering listing its stops on the rear doors.

It is worth noting that among Russian servicemen, there is a prevailing belief that in certain areas—such as the Kherson region and the city of Kherson—no civilians remain. This belief is used to justify drone strikes on any type of vehicle, including garbage trucks, which are difficult to plausibly classify as military targets.

Western Assistance

According to the Hartpunkt media outlet, the German automotive and arms manufacturer Rheinmetall and the American company Lockheed Martin are creating a joint venture to produce missiles for Patriot and HIMARS MLRS systems—namely, ATACMS, GMLRS, Hellfire, JAGM and PAC-3. Production will be launched in Europe to reduce dependence on US supplies and accelerate deliveries. However, the rights to these weapons remain with the United States, meaning that any sale of the missiles to Ukraine will require US government approval.

The United States has finally granted Australia permission to re-export decommissioned Abrams M1A1 tanks, with the shipment of the first vehicles already underway. A total of 49 tanks are planned for delivery. Some US officials reportedly remain skeptical about the relevance of tanks in the context of modern warfare—particularly UAV-dominated warfare—given their vulnerability to drone strikes. However, we believe that despite this vulnerability, tanks continue to play a vital role on the frontline. They are capable of performing several important tasks, including providing indirect fire support, transporting infantry to frontline positions and providing direct fire support during engagements.

It is worth noting that on May 14, the Estonian Navy attempted to detain a tanker from Russia’s shadow fleet en route to the port of Primorsk. The Estonian Foreign Ministry reported that on May 18, Russia detained the oil tanker Green Admire, owned by a Greek company and sailing under the Liberian flag, which had departed from the Estonian port of Sillamäe (near the border with the Leningrad region) and was traveling along a previously agreed route through Russian territorial waters. The Russian side has not announced any legal grounds for the detention.

The ASTRA Telegram channel reports that a Russian serviceman, who stole a car from a resident of the village of Rastvorovo in the Kursk region, is facing charges of looting. This is one of the rare cases in which a Russian serviceman is being prosecuted for violations of the rules of waging war.

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