Sitrep for Oct. 7-9, 2024 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
Frontline Situation Update
In the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces have captured the village of Zhelanne Pershe, continuing to reduce the pocket to the west of the village of Nevelske, according to DeepState. Meanwhile, Russia’s Ministry of Defense had already announced the capture of the villages of Zhelanne Druhe (in MoD’s Oct. 5 report) and Zoryane (which the ministry, followed by propagandists, refers to as Zoryanoye Pervoye/Zoryane Pershe), but on the DeepState map, these villages are not yet even in the contested zone, and we have not seen video evidence confirming the presence of the Russian Armed Forces in the area. Furthermore, Russian forces attempted to advance in the southern part of the Kurakhove direction towards the village of Ostrivske, but their attack with armored vehicles was repelled.
In the South Donetsk direction, the RuAF are attacking from the village of Prechystivka towards the village of Zolota Nyva, southeast of the village of Velyka Novosilka. There is currently no confirmation of its capture.
In the Kharkiv region, Russian soldiers conducted a flag photo op on the territory of the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant. It is worth noting that after the RuAF were driven out of the area, they attempted to attack the plant with an armored group. Now, Russian soldiers infiltrated one of the buildings on the plant's premises and hung a Russian flag in a window. According to Ukrainian military reports, this sabotage and reconnaissance group was spotted and subsequently engaged.
After the Russian MoD baselessly claimed to have captured the village of Verkhnokamianske in the Siversk direction, Russian propagandists decided to present “evidence” confirming the statement: Izvestia [The News, a Russian pro-Kremlin daily broadsheet newspaper and news channel] released a report in which soldiers display a map (similar to the DeepState map, although it is clearly a different one) showing Verkhnokamianske as captured, footage of a flag on unknown ruins, as well as geolocated footage from the outskirts of Verkhnokamianske with a Russian flag lying on the roof of a two-story building. We suspect that this flag was simply dropped by a drone. No concrete evidence of the village’s capture was presented.
The Wall Street Journal released an exclusive report stating that arms dealer Viktor Bout, previously freed from an American prison in a prisoner exchange, was spotted in Moscow negotiating with Yemeni Houthis about the sale of assault rifles. It is likely that he has returned to his previous role as Russia's unofficial representative in arms deals.
Ex-convicts returning from the war continue to kill people. In Novosibirsk, a local woman who had been assaulted by a former mercenary of the Wagner Group has died. The Wagner Group member assaulted the woman on Oct. 1 and left her on the street. As a result, she was sent to a hospital in critical condition, where she died. Meanwhile, in Saratov, Azamat Iskaliyev, who was released due to his participation in the war as part of the Storm-Z unit, stabbed his girlfriend to death because of her decision to break up with him. He had previously been sentenced to nine years in a penal colony for murdering his wife for a similar reason.
On Oct. 4, the authorities of the Khanty-Mansi autonomous region–Yugra [Russia's federal subject] increased the bonus for signing a contract with the Russian MoD to 2.2 million rubles [$22,800], raising the total sign-up bonus to over 2.7 million rubles [$28,000] and breaking the record set by the city of Moscow.
On Oct. 7, Belgorod regional authorities unexpectedly increased their bonus payments, setting a new national record—now the total sign-up bonus in this region is 3 million rubles [$31,100]. This is occurring against the backdrop of local authorities in border regions facing many additional expenses related to the accommodation of refugees, compensation payments to victims and families of the deceased, as well as the restoration of infrastructure damaged by Ukrainian strikes and shelling.
In the early hours of Oct. 7, the AFU reportedly launched an ATACMS tactical ballistic missile strike on the largest oil depot in Crimea, located in Feodosia. According to local Telegram channels, as of Oct. 9, the oil depot was still ablaze. The investigative project Skhemy, part of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, later released satellite images captured at 11:44 a.m. on Oct. 8, while Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty published high-resolution images taken at 2:57 p.m. the same day. The Oko Gora Telegram channel has conducted a preliminary analysis of the images, noting that several oil tanks had been destroyed by the fire.
Growing evidence suggests that the RuAF is facing a shortage of military equipment. The Russian MoD has released footage showing a 122mm D-74 towed gun being used on the front, a weapon first introduced in 1956. The Soviet Union is known to have exported large quantities of these guns to allied nations, therefore it is possible that the gun in question was reimported, rather than pulled from long-term storage, as there have been no prior reports of D-74s kept in storage in Russian arsenals. It is also worth noting that the D-74 closely resembles the D-20 towed gun-howitzer, sharing the same carriage, with the primary difference being the gun barrel—D-20s have been previously spotted on the frontline. The origin of the ammunition used, however, remains unclear, as it was not shown in the video published by the MoD.
Western Assistance
French Minister of the Armed Forces SĂ©bastien Lecornu announced that France will deliver specially upgraded Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets to Ukraine in the first quarter of 2025. Initially, it was planned that France, in partnership with other countries, would provide the aircraft by the end of 2024. The specific armament these fighter jets will be equipped with has not yet been disclosed.
Daria Zarivna, Advisor to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, stated that the second peace summit will not take place in November as previously planned. Instead, thematic conferences focused on individual points of Volodymyr Zelenskyy's "peace formula" will be held until November, after which the timing for the second summit will be discussed.
Due to the emergency situation in the state of Florida related to Hurricane Milton which is important in the context of the upcoming elections, Biden has canceled his trip to the Ramstein format meeting. Thus, Biden’s planned meeting with Zelenskyy to discuss the Victory plan and lifting restrictions on the use of Western missiles to strike targets deep in Russia will not take place. However, we expect a US representative to attend the conference and, likely, a new military aid package to be announced.