Sitrep for Sept. 9-11, 2024 (as of 8 a.m. UTC+3)
Frontline Situation Update
In the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces are reportedly advancing in the southern part of the village of Novohrodivka toward Lysivka and Marynivka, as well as in Ukrainsk, along the southern flank of the Ocheretyne salient.
According to Serhiy Dobriak, head of the military administration in Pokrovsk, Russian forces are systematically destroying the town's infrastructure using various munitions, including air-dropped bombs and artillery. Additionally, videos have surfaced showing strikes on bridges intended to disrupt Ukrainian supply lines in the area.
In the Vuhledar direction, Russian forces have advanced from the village of Vodiane toward Vuhledar. In our previous sitrep, we expressed concern that Ukrainian forces might soon be forced to abandon the town. However, after further analysis, we have now concluded that although the situation remains challenging, Ukrainian forces should be able to maintain supply routes via dirt roads at least until the muddy season begins in the coming weeks.
Russian forces from the 51st Guards Airborne Regiment launched a localized counterattack against Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region, advancing with a column of armored vehicles from the village of Korenevo toward the village of Snagost. Video footage has emerged showing captured Ukrainian soldiers in Snagost, as well as the bodies of AFU soldiers in the village of 10-Y Oktyabr, near the village of Apanasovka.
Pro-Russian sources are already reporting on the counteroffensive, claiming the liberation of the village of Gordeyevka, along with the hamlets of Vnezapnoye, Viktorovka and Byakhovo, though there is currently no independent confirmation of these claims. We expect additional information will soon emerge, shedding more light on the extent of this counteroffensive.
It is worth noting that some commentators had previously claimed, without clear evidence, that Russian forces located near Korenevo and the village of Komarovka were nearly encircled. In reality, it has since transpired that the AFU were never able to fully prevent the transfer of Russian forces across the Seym River. Satellite images show there are at least three new pontoon crossings in the Glushkovsky district. As we have stated before, pontoon crossings can be erected fairly quickly, though they are just as easily destroyed. Moreover, Ukrainian troops have not advanced in this area since nearly isolating it from the rest of the Kursk region early on in their incursion. Reports indicate that this Russian counterattack was preceded by the successful transfer of a number of armored vehicles across the Seym River.
The claim that Russian forces had indeed transferred a significant number of troops to the Kursk direction, as stated by Commander-in-Chief of the AFU General Oleksandr Syrskyi and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, should have been confirmed by such attacks. However, it appears that the RuAF have only recently managed to amass enough forces in the Kursk region to reclaim some territory. Additionally, new units are being formed within the Group of Troops "North," as indirectly evidenced by videos of military trainloads with Russian armored vehicles. As these units are assembled, they will likely be gradually redeployed to the Kursk region.
The hypothetical loss of a foothold in the Kursk region would weaken Ukraine’s negotiating position. Having initiated the Kursk operation, the AFU were also unable to halt the Russian advance in the Pokrovsk direction. Meanwhile, Russian forces are likely aiming to reclaim captured Russian territory before the US elections and potential negotiations. Former Russian Minister of Defense and current Secretary of the Security Council Sergei Shoigu, stated in an interview with the Rossiya-24 [Russia-24] government-owned federal TV channel that negotiations would be impossible until Russian territory is liberated.
According to the independent researcher Naalsio, from Sept. 3 to Sept. 9, the AFU lost more valuable military equipment and in greater quantities in the Kursk region than the RuAF. Perhaps, after the start of the Russian counteroffensive on Ukrainian positions, this trend may shift, leading to increased losses on the Russian side.
On the night of Sept. 10, Ukraine carried out one of its largest drone attacks on Russian territory. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, air defense systems intercepted 144 fixed-wing UAVs, including 20 in the Moscow region. Several drones hit high-rise residential buildings in the town of Ramenskoye, killing a 46-year-old woman. Based on the locations of other drone interceptions that night, it appears these strikes were accidental. The likely target was the Zhukovsky Airport, where debris from a downed UAV was found; however, the height and location of the high-rise buildings were likely not factored into the route planning.
On the night of Sept. 11, an explosion occurred on railway tracks in the Belgorod region. Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov reported "illegal interference in the operation of transport." A representative of the South-Eastern Railway added that 11 carriages and a locomotive from a freight train derailed, and several passenger trains were diverted.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that Russia is likely to use Iranian ballistic missiles within the next few weeks. Given that the range of these missiles is around 120 km [74 mi], they are expected to be used against close-range targets, while Russia will likely continue to use Iskander mobile short-range ballistic missiles or air-launched missiles for long distance strikes. Reports suggest that Iran has already trained dozens of Russian soldiers to operate these systems. Some commentators hope that the supply of Iranian missiles may lead to the lifting of restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western weapons against Russian territory. This issue is set to be discussed, among other things, on Sept. 11 during the visit of Blinken and UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy to Ukraine. In an interview with Sky News on Sept. 10, Blinken emphasized that the US does not rule out allowing the AFU to strike deep into Russian territory with American weapons.
It should be noted that the previous easing of restrictions followed Russian actions—namely, the invasion of the Kharkiv region. Currently, despite the AFU's offensive in the Kursk region, Western policy has remained unchanged. However, the supply of Iranian missiles to Russia could lead to the removal of these restrictions.
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty published satellite images showing the aftermath of a strike on an ammunition storage facility in the Ostrogozhsky district of the Voronezh region on Sept. 7. Before the strike, the facility was hard to spot among the trees; however, after the fire, the remains of the destroyed structures are clearly visible.
We have previously reported on the emergence of the Safe Haven project, which has raised suspicions among many human rights activists who assist deserters. Journalists from the Agentstvo [Agency] independent media outlet contacted representatives of the project and obtained the contacts of two individuals who received assistance. However, this did not dispel suspicions about the project. Agentstvo was able to partially verify the documents of both individuals, but their draft notices raised questions from the Movement of Conscientious Objectors, a human rights organization supporting those who refuse to perform military service. One draft notice was issued based on a template that became invalid in 2020, while the second was a notice for updating military registry data outside the conscription campaign, which can be ignored without serious consequences. Additionally, the coordinator of the Movement of Conscientious Objectors called the number of people who had been helped "laughable" and the amount of aid "gigantic." The deserters are offered a payment of €2,000 [$2,204].
We recommend contacting verified projects that assist deserters and refuseniks from military service, including the Idite Lesom! [Flee through the woods/Get lost you all] Telegram channel, the Kovcheg [Ark] project and the Movement of Conscientious Objectors.
The first presidential debate between US presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump was held on Sept. 10. During the debate, Trump twice avoided a question on whether he wants Ukraine to win. In response to a question about whether Ukraine’s victory serves US interests, he said he wanted the war to end. When asked how he plans to quickly end the war, Trump stated that he would hold negotiations between Zelenskyy and Putin, as they both "respect" him.
