Sitrep for Oct. 11-14, 2024 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)
Frontline Situation Update
In the Kursk region, the Russian Armed Forces resumed their counteroffensive a few days ago. At the moment, it remains unclear which settlements are under Russian or Ukrainian control.
It is worth noting that during the first wave of the counteroffensive, Russian forces attacked from the village of Korenevo toward the villages of Snagost and Lyubimovka, recapturing part of the territory occupied by Ukraine. However, fighting continued afterward without significant advances.
In the latest wave of the counteroffensive, the RuAF advanced from Lyubimovka toward the villages of Novoivanovka, Leonidovo and Zelyony Shlyakh. In recent days, Ukrainian forces reportedly regained control of some positions, particularly in Leonidovo. Meanwhile, Russian forces managed to make progress near the villages of Olgovka and Kremyanoye. There have been reports of both Russian and Ukrainian forces finding themselves in difficult positions in Olgovka; however, now the Armed Forces of Ukraine are left with a particularly dangerous salient. According to the DeepState map, Kremyanoye is no longer encircled by the AFU.
Another execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war has been reported. DeepState published a still image of the bodies of nine soldiers stripped down to their underwear near the recently captured village of Zelyony Shlyakh. The image, likely a drone video screenshot, shows one individual with a gunshot wound to the head. While only one has a visible wound, we have little doubt that this was an execution. Moreover, similar footage has recently become more frequent from various sections of the frontline.
Quoting military analyst Kirill Mikhailov (formerly of CIT) from an interview with the Agentstvo [Agency] independent media outlet, it should be noted that, given the common practice of "nullifying" (a euphemism commonly used in the Russian Army for executing someone), it is unrealistic to expect Russian soldiers to show mercy toward the enemy. The practice of executing both their own—something Russian commanders seem to view as necessary for maintaining discipline—and enemy prisoners appears to be quite widespread.
At the same time, contrary to claims of some pro-Russian Telegram channels, the execution of POWs only intensifies the fighting, as enemy soldiers now see no reason to surrender and are more likely to fight to the death.
In the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces have advanced to Ostrivske. Videos show a large number of Russian armored vehicles on the road near the village, with troops moving along the Kurakhove Reservoir. It is surprising that the road was neither dug up nor mined, nor even scattered with spiked wire mesh. Additionally, Ukrainian drones did not target the advancing Russian vehicles.
Russian troops have also crossed the railroad near the village of Tsukuryne. While some pro-Russian Telegram channels have already claimed full control over the village, neither Ukrainian sources nor the Russian Ministry of Defense have confirmed this. DeepState’s map currently indicates that part of the village remains contested, though it is likely that the entire area will soon fall under Russian control.
In the Pokrovsk direction, after capturing the town of Mykolaivka, Russian forces have advanced relatively close to the outskirts of Myrnohrad, where residential neighborhoods stretch far to the north. This suggests that fighting within city limits could begin in the near future. Pre-war, Myrnohrad had a population of over 48,000, which means that if Ukrainian forces attempt to hold out in significant numbers, the battle for the town is likely to be both prolonged and bloody.
According to Vasyl Chynchyk, head of Toretsk’s military administration, Ukrainian forces currently control about half of the town. Recent footage suggests that the other half is now in Russian hands, with urban fighting ongoing. The Kyiv Independent has published a piece on the situation in Toretsk, quoting a particularly emotional Ukrainian artilleryman who fears the town may soon fall. Of greater concern, however, is his account of the stark imbalance in artillery: his unit is receiving just five to ten rounds of ammunition per day spread across four different artillery systems—a critically low number.
Western Assistance
According to Avions LĂ©gendaires, France is planning to transfer between 12 and 20 Mirage 2000-5F fighter jets to Ukraine in 2025, as we previously reported. Ukrainian pilots are likely already undergoing training on these aircraft.
The Ramstein format meeting, postponed due to President Joe Biden's busy schedule, will ultimately not take place. However, on Oct. 18, Biden will make a brief visit to Germany, where he will meet with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to discuss military aid to Ukraine. We expect that this week, Ukraine's allied countries will announce new military aid packages, which were initially planned to be revealed during the meeting.
Aftermath of Strikes
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has published satellite images showing the aftermath of the strike on the ammunition storage facility at Khanskaya airfield in Adygea [Russia's constituent republic] on Oct. 10. Earlier satellite images show that the ammunition was stored in the open near the apron and runway. According to sources of the Astra Telegram channel, the attack destroyed one Kh-31 missile, three Kh-35 missiles, 15 Universal Joint Glide Bombs and 41 Universal Planning and Correction Modules (UMPKs).
Satellite images of the strike on a storage facility near the village of Oktyabrsky in the Krasnodar region on Oct. 9 were also published, showing that several buildings were completely destroyed. The AFU General Staff had previously claimed that around 400 loitering munitions were stored at the facility.
New photos have emerged showing the wreckage of a downed Russian Gerbera drone, which is used primarily as a decoy in Shahed loitering munition raids.
Satellite images of the aftermath of the strike on the oil depot in Feodosia in the early hours of Oct. 7 have also been published. At least eight tanks seem to be destroyed, and four more are covered in soot; the extent of their damage is unknown.
It is worth noting that according to the Crimean Wind Telegram channel, after the Konro Trader ferry sank on Aug. 22, the railway crossing across the Kerch Strait ground to a standstill. At the same time, as far as we know, fuel is not being delivered to Crimea by rail via the Crimean Bridge due to concerns about missile strikes on fuel and lubricant trains, which could damage the bridge. This may explain why the capture of the town of Vuhledar was so important for Russia, as it is located near the Rostov-Donetsk-Mariupol-Berdiansk railway. Russian forces intend to use this route (or may already be using it—there is no reliable information on this matter) to transport fuel and supplies to units in the southern occupied territories.
On Oct. 8, Roskomnadzor [Russia's internet censorship agency] blocked the Discord messaging app in Russia. Originally created for gamers, Discord has gained popularity in many professional fields, including among the American, Ukrainian and Russian armies, as it allows users to create dedicated servers for text communication, file sharing, voice chat rooms and live streaming from drones. The sudden block reportedly disrupted drone streams to command centers of various Russian military units and formations. However, Andrey Kartapolov, Chairman of the Defense Committee of the State Duma [lower house of the Federal Assembly of Russia], stated that Discord is not used in the Russian Army, as communication is conducted via basic phones and radios, and therefore all soldiers remain in contact. Kartapolov dismissed claims of operational issues caused by the block as fake news, seemingly suggesting that military command methods have not changed since World War II, with officers still working with paper maps.
At the beginning of October, a group of Russian deserters managed to travel from Kazakhstan to France. This marks the first known case in which a European country not only provided refuge for soldiers refusing to fight but also assisted them with travel documents. Experience shows that deserters in EU countries, provided they are not involved in war crimes, can expect to receive asylum. However, many Russians lack international passports, leaving numerous deserters stuck in countries where they can only travel using their internal Russian passports. Our colleague, Aleksey Alshansky, participated in verifying the stories of individuals who were successfully evacuated to a safe country. The process of working with deserters is complex, as it requires thoroughly vetting and gathering comprehensive information about each individual. Otherwise, if a reputable organization begins helping a deserter reach an EU country, only to later discover that the individual was involved in war crimes or espionage for Russian intelligence services, it could jeopardize not only the organization but also the entire movement assisting deserters—no European country would want to engage in such efforts again.
This successful evacuation is a major victory for human rights activists, particularly the human rights association Russie-Libertés, which fought for two years against European bureaucracy for these people, and KIBHR—the Kazakhstan International Bureau for Human Rights and Rule of Law, which protected the deserters from Russian authorities while they were in Kazakhstan.
It is worth noting that the French authorities considered not only the fact of desertion but also the active civic stance of these individuals: while in Kazakhstan, they organized the Proshchai Oruzhiye [A Farewell to Arms] anti-war community. Thus, this case demonstrates that those who flee and engage in anti-war activities have a chance to find refuge in a safe country. Additionally, it is important to remember that there are several reliable projects assisting deserters and refuseniks from military service, including the Idite Lesom! [Flee through the woods/Get lost you all] project, the Ark organization and the Movement of Conscientious Objectors, a human rights organization supporting those who refuse to perform military service. If you are ready to flee the army or avoid conscription, reach out to them, and they will help you escape.