Sitrep for Sept. 8-12, 2025 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)

Frontline Situation Update

In the previous sitrep we reported that Ukrainian forces likely intended to cut off the main part of the Dobropillia salient by advancing along the Kazenyi Torets River from the direction of the villages of Razine and Novotoretske, however there were no advances along the river in recent days. Nevertheless, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to advance northeast of the village of Volodymyrivka, while Russian forces slightly expanded their presence to the west of it. In addition, the AFU significantly narrowed the salient just north of the village of Maiak, practically cutting off supplies to the area between the village of Shakhove and Nove Shakhove.

Following reports from more than two weeks ago about the presence of 60-100 Russian servicemen in an isolated area near the village of Kucheriv Yar, almost no new information about their fate has emerged. No mass surrender has been recorded, and apparently the area remains not fully cleared.

A Ukrainian serviceman, author of the Officer Telegram channel, stated that complete chaos reigns throughout the Dobropillia salient: either Russian troops are trying to break through to the encircled forces, or the encircled forces themselves are trying to advance north toward the village of Vesele. The maneuvers gave us the impression that even the commands of both groupings do not fully understand what is happening there. Overall, virtually the entire breakthrough territory can be considered a contested area, where specific areas may pass from one side to the other.

The transfer of units to the Dobropillia salient continues: now the 61st Naval Infantry Brigade has been sent there. This became known after a post of a video filmed by military personnel in the city of Donetsk thanking volunteers who provided large water containers. They will likely now participate in battles specifically in the Pokrovsk direction. The reinforcement of the grouping in this direction suggests that fierce battles can be expected in the remaining warm weeks.

In the Lyman direction, the Russian Armed Forces continue to capture the remainder of the Serebrianske forestry. By doing so, they are trying to finally reach the administrative border of the Luhansk region in this area. Additionally, this can be considered part of preparations for further offensive toward the village of Yampil, which is part of a larger offensive on the town of Lyman. In the near future, we expect to see attempts to physically cut the road leading from Lyman and passing through the village of Drobysheve. For this purpose, the RuAF will continue advancing toward the village of Novoselivka.

The territory around Lyman, Yampil and Drobysheve is shielded by water barriers—the Nitrius, Siverskyi Donets and Zherebets rivers—which complicates logistics for the AFU.

Russian advances are also noted in the South Donetsk direction, specifically near the villages of Novoselivka, Maliivka, Ternove and Berezove in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

Additionally, about a week ago, Russian forces advanced into the village of Yunakivka and the area east of it in the Sumy direction. Fighting for the settlement continues with varying success.

Ukrainian and Russian Strikes

In the early hours of Sept. 10, at least 23 Russian Gerbera UAVs entered Polish airspace. One of them struck a private house in the village of Wyryki-Wola. It is worth noting that these drones are most often used as decoys, but some modifications carry combat payloads and reconnaissance modules, including cameras capable of transmitting data to operators.

The Polkovnyk Henshtabu [Colonel of the General Staff] Telegram channel, which frequently publishes insider information about Russian military equipment in Ukraine, reported that some photos of the downed Gerbera drones in Poland show additional fuel tanks in the nose section. It is likely that these tanks enabled the drones to reach Polish territory.

Journalists reconstructed the air attack and found that at least five drones flew toward Rzeszów, home to the main logistics hub for Western weapons supplies to Ukraine. The drones used can effectively gather intelligence, including information on vulnerable points of air defense. The drones used are capable of effectively gathering intelligence, including on vulnerabilities in air defense systems, allegedly entering NATO countries’ airspace "by accident" due to "the effects of Ukrainian jamming systems."

This is not the first time Russian drones have entered Polish airspace. However, it should be noted that during previous aerial attacks on western regions of Ukraine on Aug. 21 and Sept. 2, the drones did not deviate from their course enough to cross the state border.

Ukrainian military expert Serhii "Flash" Beskrestnov, who specializes in radio technologies, told The Wall Street Journal that this definitely cannot be Ukrainian GPS spoofing, because the range of such jammers is quite limited, approximately 15 kilometers [9.3 mi], and after leaving its radius, the drone restores its position in space and can even return to its original trajectory. We cannot be certain that Russian drones behave exactly this way in the event of a malfunction. It is possible that, unable to return to their previous trajectory, the UAV flies straight until it receives a command from the operator.

The available information does not allow us to conclusively prove that the incursion into Polish airspace was deliberate, but the totality of circumstantial evidence points in that direction. Nevertheless, there is no evidence suggesting that Russia is preparing for war with Poland or NATO as a whole. Such actions aimed at probing a potential adversary's defenses or gathering intelligence can continue for years and even decades without leading to open confrontation.

Naturally, these events caused considerable alarm in Europe. Poland invoked Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty and convened allies for urgent consultations. Various NATO countries deployed their air forces to counter this raid. This included Polish F-16 fighter aircraft, Dutch F-35s, and an Italian airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft. Reports indicate that only those UAVs that posed a real threat or were headed toward important targets were shot down. Whether this is actually the case is unclear. It is worth noting that in some cases, drones costing $10,000-15,000 had to be shot down with AIM-120 advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles (AMRAAM) that are two orders of magnitude more expensive.

All this demonstrates the vulnerability of European countries to the threat of mass deployment of cheap drones, since in recent years the European defense industry has been developing weapons capable of detecting and intercepting powerful, high-speed ballistic or intercontinental missiles.

Rochan Consulting analyst Konrad Muzyka also pointed out that Poland has chosen to purchase high-tech weapons systems, including Patriot batteries, Apache helicopters, F-35 fighters, MLRS, artillery and other equipment. In this way, the country was preparing for a full-scale conventional war, but was caught off guard by Russia's mass drone raids. In Muzyka’s opinion, the belief that drones that don't pose an obvious threat can be ignored is a dangerous illusion since they can freely gather critical information.

Rob Lee, Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, also believes that NATO members are learning too slowly from the war in Ukraine, while Ukraine counters UAVs with more affordable mobile air-defense groups, helicopters, and interceptor drones. NATO could deploy similar units on its eastern border to help allied countries defend against further incursions.

In response to the drone raid, the Czech Republic expressed its intention to send Mil Mi-17 helicopters to patrol Polish airspace and defend against low-flying targets, while the United Kingdom and France plan to send fighter jets. European countries truly need to learn from Ukraine’s experience and reform their armed forces accordingly.

Reuters, citing Volodymyr Zelenskyy, reported that the Polish government will send military representatives to Ukraine for training in countering UAVs under the guidance of Ukrainian instructors.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy also stated that the RuAF may have launched drones into Polish territory in order to convince European partners not to transfer air-defense systems to Ukraine before winter, but would instead use them to protect their own territory. He suggested that this factor may have been considered by the Russian leadership alongside reconnaissance.

Trump reacted rather cautiously to the likely deliberate strike aimed at military facilities. He merely expressed displeasure with the incident and suggested that the drones might have strayed in by mistake.

A video was published showing an unsuccessful attempt by a Ukrainian drone to intercept a Russian Molniya-2 kamikaze UAV, during which the latter managed to strike a civilian vehicle.

The 39th Tactical Aviation Brigade of the Ukrainian Air Force reported that during a combat mission on the Zaporizhzhia axis, a Sukhoi Su-27 fighter jet was lost and the pilot was killed.

The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine stated that on Sept. 10, they struck a Russian Black Sea Fleet ship engaged in electronic reconnaissance near Novorossiysk using an aerial drone. According to a source cited by the ASTRA media outlet, the ship’s captain was injured. There is no confirmation that the vessel Spasatel Ilyin was conducting reconnaissance, although it is possible that it was warning Black Sea Fleet forces of threats from maritime surface drones. Project MPSV07 salvage ships are part of the Russian State Marine Rescue Service fleet and are intended for emergency rescue duty, search, rescue and evacuation of ships and people in distress, firefighting on floating and shore-based objects, oil spill response and underwater technical operations.

On the morning of Sept. 10, unmanned surface vessel attacks were repelled in the waters off Novorossiysk, according to a report by the city's mayor Andrey Kravchenko on his Telegram channel.

Based on information collected about attacks on civilian infrastructure, it appears that the AFU have recently been using fewer FPV drones in the Bryansk and Kursk regions. It is possible that the drone operator units responsible for these areas have been redeployed to more critical sections of the frontline.

However, in the Belgorod region, there has been no reduction in drone activity. On Sept. 11, one person was killed and six others were injured in strikes. The following morning, Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov reported that a woman in Belgorod had died from injuries sustained in an AFU attack. According to eyewitnesses, she was killed by debris from the booster stage of a missile launched by the Russian Pantsir-S1 surface-to-air missile and anti-aircraft artillery system.

The Washington Post has published an interactive feature offering an immersive, atmospheric depiction of air strikes on major Ukrainian cities. The piece highlights both the psychological trauma and the physical toll these attacks have inflicted on residents.

On Sept. 9, Russian forces dropped two 250-kilogram bombs on the village of Yarova in Ukraine’s Donetsk region. The village lies just 5-7 kilometers [3.1-4.3 mi] from Russian positions near Novoselivka on the Lyman axis. Strikes within a 10-kilometer [6.2 mi] radius of active RuAF assault zones have become routine, often targeting frontline-adjacent settlements with little media attention. This latest attack, however, drew wider attention due to its devastating impact on civilians. The bombs struck a pension payment point where residents—many of them elderly—had gathered to collect their benefits. As of now, 25 people are confirmed dead and 18 injured.

The RuAF continue to attack first responders at strike sites. On Sept. 8 alone, photos were published showing damaged fire trucks in the city of Kramatorsk as well as in the Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy regions.

The Ukrainian project Militarnyi reported that the Ukrainian Armor company has supplied the AFU with more than 1,000 Novator armored vehicles since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Defence Blog also reported that the Bohdana program has achieved significant output, with 245 wheeled self-propelled howitzers and 100 towed guns produced to date. Currently, the Ukraine-based production facility manufactures 30 units per month.

Western Assistance

Following the latest Ramstein-format meeting, Sweden announced a new military aid package worth approximately $840 million, which includes:

18 Archer artillery systems and 155mm artillery rounds;
coastal radar systems;
new marine support vessels with grenade launchers and unmanned systems;
additional sensors, weapons systems and radars for previously supplied CB90-class combat boats;
500 motorcycles;
air base support equipment;
radar sensors, command systems and additional programmable 40mm munitions for Tridon MK2 anti-aircraft systems (which serve as air defense, similar to the Skynex wheeled self-propelled anti-aircraft gun);
additional "secret" systems, which, according to the Swedish Defense Minister, are intended to be a surprise for the RuAF.

Germany has also announced the transfer of two complete Patriot systems, with the first launchers already delivered to Ukraine. These may be the systems mentioned in mid-summer.

As part of the Octopus project, the United Kingdom plans to produce up to 1,000 interceptor drones per month for Ukraine. These drones are said to be 10% cheaper than the Shahed drones they are designed to intercept and far cheaper than anti-aircraft missiles. However, no timeframe has been given, not even approximately, for when such production levels will be achieved. It is worth noting that during mass aerial attacks several hundred UAVs may be used at once, meaning that a thousand interceptor drones would last only a few days.

The Financial Times, citing Western and Ukrainian officials, reported that Ukraine risks being left without sufficient air defense systems due to the slowdown in US supplies and the intensification of Russian airstrikes. Air defense systems remain scarce because they are both time-consuming to manufacture and difficult to procure.

The German automotive and arms manufacturer Rheinmetall announced that by the end of the year Ukraine will receive its first Skyranger systems, another air defense system expected to be effective against Russian drones. The exact variant and number of systems to be delivered have not been disclosed.

As a result of a deal between Trump and Belarus’s Alyaksandr Lukashenka, 52 Belarusian political prisoners were released. At the same time, the United States is planning to reopen its embassy in Minsk and has lifted restrictions on the state airline Belavia. However, this does not mean the airline will be able to resume flights to multiple destinations, as European sanctions against Belavia, imposed after the forced landing of a Ryanair flight carrying activist Roman Protasevich, remain in place. The lifting of US restrictions will likely enable Belarus to purchase spare aircraft parts, which could benefit Russia as well.

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