Sitrep for March 2-6, 2026 (as of 10:30 a.m. UTC+3)

Frontline Situation Update

In the Lyman direction, the Russian Armed Forces entered the village of Drobysheve and raised Russian flags. However, no people were visible in the video. Later, footage appeared showing Russian soldiers directly in the center of the village. Apparently, they did manage to advance there from the north. The Russian Ministry of Defense also claimed the capture of the village of Yarova, though convincing confirmation of this has not yet emerged.

Slightly to the south, in the Sloviansk–Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces are gradually advancing near the village of Riznykivka, which appears to have been captured, and near the village of Nykyforivka. Fighting is ongoing for the village of Fedorivka Druha and in the vicinity of the recently captured village of Pryvillia.

This has led to tube artillery shelling of the city of Kramatorsk, in addition to drone strikes. The artillery pieces are most likely positioned in the area of the villages of Nykyforivka and Fedorivka Druha, located about 20 kilometers [12.4 mi] from the city. On the morning of March 2, shelling of the city killed three civilians and wounded two others. Residential buildings as well as commercial and government facilities were damaged. As the frontline approaches the urban agglomeration, the situation for civilians there is becoming increasingly dangerous. So far, the RuAF has been advancing most successfully on the eastern flank of the Sloviansk–Kramatorsk direction.

In the Dobropillia (Pokrovsk) direction, near the village of Hannivka, a dam was reportedly blown up on March 2, according to video footage of the aftermath, although no footage of the explosion itself has appeared. As a result, water overflowed its banks and flooded nearby roads. This somewhat complicates the logistics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine northeast of Dobropillia.

According to Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets, Russian forces are attempting to push from the captured town of Rodynske toward the village of Hryshyne and the settlement of Shevchenko. The territory north of the captured towns of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad is at least in a contested status.

In Hryshyne itself, Russian advances have also been reported in recent days: the RuAF has taken the central and northern parts of the village, while fighting continues for the southwestern part. Thus, they are currently moving west of Pokrovsk, not far from the road leading to Pavlohrad.

The AFU continue their offensive operation in the Dnipropetrovsk region, gradually advancing near the villages of Zlahoda (formerly Pershotravneve), Ternove and Novohryhorivka, pushing the RuAF further south.

Ukrainian units have also made gains in the area of Ternuvate and Pryluky. These maneuvers suggest that the AFU are targeting the flank of Russian forces advancing from Huliaipole toward Orikhiv, aiming to disrupt supply routes to Velyka Novosilka. While the road remains outside direct weapon range, Ukrainian UAVs have begun operating along it regularly.

Meanwhile, Russian forces have continued their limited advances in the areas of Zaliznychne and Dorozhnianka, south of Huliaipole, over the past several days.

It is worth noting that, according to the tally of multiple analytical projects, RuAF territorial gains in February 2026 were the lowest on record since the start of the full-scale invasion.

With the arrival of spring, snowmelt has triggered the muddy season, severely degrading mobility. Video footage has emerged showing a Ukrainian 2S22 Bohdana 155mm wheeled self-propelled howitzer, fitted with heavy anti-drone defense, moving at extremely slow speed across partially soggy terrain. The reduced mobility significantly increases vulnerability to enemy UAV strikes. Researcher Playfra has also noted that improving weather conditions have worsened logistical efficiency for both sides as clear skies facilitate drone operations.

Ukraine’s Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov announced that in 2026, the Ukrainian military plans to significantly scale up the use of ground robotic systems (UGVs) to take over logistical duties and reduce personnel casualties.

Ukrainian and Russian Strikes

The RuAF have once again begun striking Ukrainian Railways (Ukrzaliznytsia). On March 2, a Russian drone struck a passenger train in the Dnipropetrovsk region—one person was killed and ten others were injured. On March 4, a Russian drone struck a passenger train in Mykolaiv, one railway worker was injured.

The tanker war in the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea, which began in 2025, continues. On March 3, off the coast of Libya, the Russian gas carrier Arctic Metagaz, which is under US sanctions, was attacked by four UAVs and two unmanned surface vessels, reports indicate.

On the evening of March 4, a Russian UAV attacked a Panamanian-flagged civilian vessel leaving the port of Chornomorsk with a cargo of corn. One person was injured.

In the early hours of March 4, Russian air defenses shot down a Mi-8 helicopter near the Millerovo airfield in the Rostov region, killing the crew.

In the early hours of March 5, the Ukrainian Navy and Special Operations Forces attacked a Russian gas platform in the Black Sea. They claimed that the facility had been used to host special communications equipment, relay stations and surveillance systems. A drone strike destroyed all of this equipment, as well as a Ka-27 helicopter that had landed on the platform. The helicopter’s crew reportedly survived.

According to the Financial Times, Slovakia and Hungary have accused Ukraine of delaying the restoration of the Druzhba oil pipeline following a Russian attack in January and have claimed that the extent of the damage has been exaggerated. Politico reported that Hungary blocked the first tranche of the European Union’s loan to Ukraine and the adoption of a new package of sanctions against Russia.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed hope that Viktor Orbán would stop blocking the loan and emphasized the need for weapons for Ukrainian soldiers.

Conscription, Mobilization and Contract Military Service

Mediazona [independent Russian media outlet] found that, according to statistics from the Central Bank, in 2025, Russian banks granted 244,000 payment holidays for Russians who went to war and for their family members. From other sources, we know that approximately the same number of people (400,000) signed contracts in 2024 and 2025. Therefore, the increase in the number of loan payment holidays indicates the growing indebtedness of those joining the war, not a rise in the number of volunteer fighters.

Residents of Omsk have received a mailing from the Gosuslugi public services portal offering free training as a UAV operator. The message mentioned the prospect of signing a contract with a sign-up bonus, monthly payments, and, among other benefits, support with credit obligations—the possibility of writing off debt of up to 10 million rubles [$127,200].

The authorities of the Ulyanovsk region have increased the size of the sign-up bonus for signing a contract with the MoD to serve in UAV troops to 1.1 million rubles [$14,000]. At the same time, the general payment for signing a contract remained at the previous level—500,000 rubles [$6,360]. It is unclear to us at what stage the region determines that a specific volunteer fighter will be assigned to UAV troops and should receive the additional payment. As far as we know, all contracts are standard, and distribution is handled by the MoD after training.

We have previously reported active campaigning aimed at students encouraging them to sign contracts with the MoD allegedly for service in UAV troops. It can be assumed that regions have introduced separate recruitment plans for UAV troops.

The Movement of Conscientious Objectors, a human rights organization supporting those who refuse to perform military service, reported the first case in Russia of a package of additional restrictions being imposed through the Unified Military Register—the register of Russians subject to military service [digital system to identify citizens subject to military service and serve draft notices]. A conscript from Kaliningrad received a draft notice for a data check-up in November 2025. When he failed to appear at the draft office, the system generated a decision to impose five serious restrictions 20 days after the scheduled appearance date. Previously, only cases of blocking exit from the country had been recorded. It is unclear why this case only became public three months later. It is possible that many similar cases have already occurred but have not yet been made public.

How the War in Iran Is Affecting the War in Ukraine

Donald Trump said the United States had virtually unlimited weapons stockpiles and could wage wars “forever.” He also criticized Joe Biden for supplying arms to Ukraine, saying that Biden had “given away hundreds of billions of dollars” without ensuring that American arsenals were replenished.

Zelenskyy said that because of the war in Iran, peace talks involving Russia, Ukraine and the United States had been suspended. We do not believe the pause will have any meaningful effect on the war, noting that the talks had not produced tangible results.

In an interview with Politico, Trump also said that Zelenskyy now had “even less cards,” adding that the Ukrainian leader “has to get a deal done.”

Reuters, citing three sources, reported that from late November to mid-December 2025 Ukraine did not receive US-made AIM-9 Sidewinder air-to-air missiles from its Western allies for use with its F-16 Fighting fighter aircraft. By the time the deliveries stopped, the AFU reportedly had only “a handful” of missiles left. According to one source, Ukraine had almost no missiles available for its aircraft for nearly a month. Pilots also tried using missiles that had failed to fire on earlier missions in the hope they would work after maintenance, and in some cases they did.

It should be noted that Ukraine's need for air defense systems will continue to grow as we do not anticipate a long-term reduction in the scale of Russian aerial attacks.

Meanwhile, the possibility of leveraging Ukraine’s experience in countering Shahed drones is under discussion. Zelenskyy announced that Ukrainian experts will be sent to countries in the Middle East to assist with the interception of Iranian drones. He has already held talks with the United States, European partners, and the leaders of the UAE, Qatar, Jordan and Bahrain. According to the Financial Times, the United States and at least one Persian Gulf country are negotiating the purchase of Ukrainian interceptor drones. We believe that such deliveries will not reduce the number of anti-aircraft drones available to the AFU. According to some experts, Ukrainian production has been underutilized due to a lack of funding.

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