Sitrep for March 6-9, 2026 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)

Frontline Situation Update

In the Sumy region, Russia’s Group of Troops “North” has once again crossed the border, reportedly capturing the border village of Sopych. The Ukrainian monitoring project DeepState has also mapped further Russian advances on the bridgehead near Hrabovske, specifically in the villages of Pokrovka and Popivka (north of Vysoke), which Russia’s Ministry of Defense had previously claimed to have captured.

In the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces continue advancing northwest of the town of Pokrovsk, particularly in the village of Hryshyne. Despite the fighting, civilians remain in the village. A recently circulated video shows several elderly residents there, some of whom appear to have serious mobility difficulties.

In the cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, the approaching range of Russian artillery is likely to soon make civilian evacuations much more difficult. Civilians need to be evacuated now, as shelling and drone strikes in the agglomeration are expected to intensify.

Researcher War Unit Observer notes that after Ukraine redeployed additional assault units to the Huliaipole direction, Russian forces also moved reinforcements there from the Pokrovsk direction. These reportedly include the 68th Army Corps, the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade and the 55th Naval Infantry Division. So far, however, we have not seen confirmation that the 55th Division is actually participating in combat. Overall, this suggests that the RuAF are attempting to accelerate their offensive in the Huliaipole direction, where progress has recently slowed due to the reinforcement of Ukrainian troops and unfavorable weather. Most likely, once the muddy season ends, fighting in this sector will intensify. For now, both sides appear to be regrouping, much as they did at this time last year.

It is worth noting that the Ukrainian military places significant emphasis on the use of ground robotic systems for logistics and the evacuation of wounded personnel. At the end of February, competitions among manufacturers of various ground robots, both tracked and wheeled, were held in Kyiv. The robots were required to overcome different obstacles, navigate terrain, locate special markers placed on trees and record them using onboard cameras. As far as we know, in real combat conditions, each such ground robot is accompanied by a UAV to assist with navigation and route planning. During the competition, however, this aerial component was absent, which significantly complicated the task of completing the course.

Ukrainian and Russian Strikes

The General Staff of the AFU reported a strike on March 7 against a facility near Donetsk International Airport. According to reports, ATACMS tactical ballistic missile and SCALP‑EG cruise missile were used, and the target was a site where Shahed drones were being prepared for launch. The following day, according to the CyberBoroshno group, a strike hit an ammunition storage facility located on the grounds of the Tochmash Plant near the airport. Footage of the aftermath shows substantial destruction, and reports warned of danger to local residents due to possible secondary detonations and the spread of fragments. This suggests that the storage site may have contained UAV warheads.

These missiles are used relatively rarely due to their limited supply. Nevertheless, the ATACMS missiles were mentioned again recently, on Feb. 24, in another statement by the AFU General Staff. The consequences of that strike are unknown.

Footage has also appeared showing a Ukrainian airstrike on Russian positions on the southeastern outskirts of Zaliznychne in the Zaporizhzhia region. This is an example of air support provided by the Ukrainian Air Force. Previously, we noted that they conduct relatively few combat sorties compared with the Russian Aerospace Forces.

According to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, over the past week Russia launched 1,530 glide bombs and 1,750 attack drones. At the beginning of this year, the average weekly use was about 1,000-1,200 air‑dropped bombs, while in the middle of last year it was 600-800, indicating that the scale of airstrikes continues to increase.

On March 7, a video was published showing the destruction of a Shahed‑136 (Geran‑2) loitering munition, reportedly using the Tempest air defense system. The video first shows an anti-aircraft drone failing to intercept the UAV, then it is shot down by an AGM‑114 Hellfire missile. In January, it was reported that the Tempest air defense system had been delivered to the AFU, and footage was published showing the system in Ukraine and in operation. On March 8, another video appeared that reportedly shows a UAV being shot down by an AGM‑114L Hellfire Longbow missile. These missiles are quite expensive; according to some estimates, a single missile costs around $100,000-$150,000, which is an order of magnitude more than an interceptor drone.

In the early hours of March 7, the RuAF carried out a missile strike on the city of Kharkiv. As a result, one section of a residential apartment building collapsed, along with the upper part of an adjacent building. Eleven people were killed, including two children, and sixteen were injured, among them three children. The destroyed building was located 150-200 meters [0.09-0.12 mi] north of the Kharkiv Aviation Institute complex. The institute may have been the intended target, but the missile deviated from its course.

It is reported that a new cruise missile known as "Izdeliye 30" was used in the strike, which Ukrainian intelligence had recently identified. Its warhead weighs 800 kg [1,764 lb], and its range is up to 1,500 km [923 mi].

The energy company DTEK reported that serious electricity supply problems continue in the city of Odesa and the Odesa region. These problems are linked to a shift in Russian tactics in 2025, when the RuAF began actively striking distribution substations. Even when power-generation facilities remain intact, delivering electricity to consumers becomes difficult.

How the War in Iran Is Affecting the War in Ukraine

On Feb. 28, during a strike on IRGC barracks in Minab, one of the munitions hit a girls’ school located in a building that had been part of the military complex ten years earlier. It is reported that 175 people were killed in the school, the IRGC hospital and other buildings within the complex, many of them children—about half according to some reports. When asked by journalists about this strike, Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth stated that they hold Iran responsible for the deaths. Investigations by The New York Times and Bellingcat indicated that the strike on the IRGC hospital was carried out using a Tomahawk missile, which is only in service with the United States. In a video published by Bellingcat, smoke can be seen rising from the direction of the school building.

We believe it is extremely important to acknowledge one’s own mistakes and investigate one’s own war crimes, including those committed through negligence.

Regarding the assistance Ukraine could provide to allies engaged in war against Iran, it is worth noting a video of a test launch of interceptor drones from the Magura unmanned surface vessel, apparently near Odesa. Such practices could prove useful for defending coastal Arab countries separated from Iran by the waters of the Persian Gulf.

Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine will train Persian Gulf countries to shoot down Iranian drones. The first group of Ukrainian military personnel and experts departed for Jordan on March 9. We assume this involves not only anti-aircraft drones but also acoustic drone detection networks, such as Sky Fortress. Financial Times and Reuters have published reports on the possible involvement of the Ukrainian UAV manufacturer SkyFall in the defense of Persian Gulf countries.

Reportedly, the United States has sent Merops interceptor drones to the Middle East, which were previously deployed in Poland and Romania. The price of each such drone is about $7,000, which is several times higher than the cost of the Ukrainian SkyFall P1-Sun interceptor drones.

Western Assistance

In 2024, Belgium promised to supply Ukraine with 30 F-16 fighter aircraft by 2028 (according to other estimates, deliveries were pledged for 2024-2025), but so far it has not transferred a single aircraft. The first fighters were supposed to be transferred to Ukraine after Belgium received its first F-35A in the fall of 2025. According to Lockheed Martin, Belgium had received 11 fighters by that time. According to a new assessment, Ukraine will receive the promised F-16 fighter aircraft no earlier than 2029 (apparently referring to the expected full transition of the Belgian Air Component to the F-35). Furthermore, in the fall of 2023, statements were made regarding the poor condition of the Belgian F-16 fighter aircraft, and in the spring of 2025, Belgium promised to deliver two fighters for spare parts by the end of the year.

Putin has signed a law prohibiting the extradition of foreign nationals and stateless persons who have signed contracts with Russia’s MoD, as well as those who have performed contract military service and participated in combat, to other countries for criminal prosecution or the execution of a sentence. We do not believe that this law will significantly increase the number of foreign contract soldiers joining the Russian army.

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