Sitrep for Dec. 2-4, 2024 (as of 11 a.m. UTC+3)

Frontline Situation Update

The situation on the Vremivka salient has remained unchanged in recent days. However, in the southern part of the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces have advanced toward the village of Uspenivka and the Sukhi Yaly River, moving along the western edge of the pocket near the riverbed. We believe that this pocket could fall within a couple of days, with news of a Ukrainian withdrawal likely emerging after the fact.

In Kurakhove, Russian forces are reinforcing the flanks of the salient in the eastern part of the town. It cannot be ruled out that the fortified area around the town could be captured without first cutting off the N-15 highway, which supplies troops in the area. Meanwhile, on the northern bank of the Kurkahove Reservoir, the Russian Armed Forces have captured the village of Stari Terny, and are likely to soon begin constructing temporary crossings over the Vovcha River to advance toward the highway. While the dam was not entirely destroyed when the road was demolished—preventing the reservoir from completely draining—establishing a crossing will likely still prove challenging.

In the Pokrovsk direction, Russian troops have resumed their advance toward the town of Pokrovsk along the railroad, and have also launched a new offensive from Selydove along the M-30 highway.

In the Kupiansk direction, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have successfully mopped-up the Russian bridgehead near the village of Novomlynsk. In addition, the bridgehead in the village of Masiutivka is now marked as a contested area on the DeepState project map and will probably also be eliminated soon. It appears the Russian army lacked sufficient reserves in this direction to hold positions on the western bank of the Oskil River.

Although Colonel General Ivan Buvaltsev, head of the Main Directorate for Combat Training of the RuAF, stated that more than 300,000 servicemen have undergone training in reserve regiments in 2024, this does not necessarily indicate the availability of substantial reserves.

Over the past month, multiple reports have emerged suggesting that North Korean forces are involved in combat, although such claims lack substantial evidence. However, the Pentagon Press Secretary Patrick Ryder has confirmed our hypothesis that North Korean soldiers have been integrated into Russian units for combat coordination exercises. While they have not yet taken an active role in offensive operations, North Korean personnel have reportedly suffered casualties as a result of Ukrainian strikes on military targets in the Kursk region. It cannot be ruled out that the situation will change in the near future. The fact that a North Korean general was injured during a strike on a command post near the village of Maryino, close to the frontline, can be viewed as evidence of an imminent deployment of North Korean forces to forward positions.

A photo has surfaced of a 155mm towed artillery system based on the artillery cannon from the 2S22 Bohdana wheeled self-propelled howitzer, mounted on the carriage of a Soviet Giatsint-B 152mm towed field gun. Their main difference is the replacement of the barrel with one compatible with NATO-standard shells. This development highlights the continued relevance of towed artillery in modern combat along with self-propelled guns.

Western Assistance

The United States has announced a new $725 million military aid package for Ukraine, which will include, among other items, anti-personnel mines. Notably, it was previously reported that the composition of aid packages provided under the Presidential Drawdown Authority mechanism was to be finalized by the end of the fiscal year. As part of this package, Ukraine will receive 155mm cluster munitions with mines as submunitions, as well as truck-mounted remote mining systems. It is worth noting that in the ongoing war in Ukraine, mines, including anti-personnel mines, have proven to be an effective tool for deterring advancing enemy forces.

Sources from The Wall Street Journal report that Donald Trump may consider nominating Florida Governor Ron DeSantis for the position of US Secretary of Defense instead of Pete Hegseth, whose nomination has not yet gained support from any Republican senator.

Deutsche Welle, citing its sources, has reported that several European countries are considering deploying peacekeepers to Ukraine to enforce a ceasefire if an agreement is reached. We think it unlikely that regular troops would enforce the ceasefire through military means. Rather, the military contingent would likely act as observers, similar to the OSCE mission, which was limited to documenting violations of the Minsk agreements and express deep regret in response.

On Dec. 3, internet cables connecting Finland to Sweden were severed in two locations near Helsinki. Finnish police initially suspected sabotage but later determined that the damage was accidental, caused by cable damage during road construction work involving heavy machinery.

War in Syria

On the morning of Dec. 3, the Naval News media outlet reported that Russia had withdrawn its fleet from its only port in the Mediterranean, located in the Syrian city of Tartus. The publication speculated that this move might be related to the proximity of anti-Assad forces. However, we have observed multiple times that Russian forces generally do not preemptively withdraw from dangerous zones. For instance, in Ukraine, facilities located within the range of HIMARS MLRS or ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles were only relocated after being struck. Similarly, following a January 2018 drone attack by rebel forces on the Khmeimim airbase, the Russian Aerospace Forces did not evacuate aircraft from the base.

By the afternoon of Dec. 3, the situation became clearer when the Russian Ministry of Defense published a report on exercises in the Mediterranean. During these exercises, a 3M22 Zircon hypersonic cruise missile was launched—marking the first time the Ministry publicly showcased this missile. The Polkovnyk Henshtabu [Colonel of the General Staff] Telegram channel compared footage from the exercises with photos of debris found in Kyiv after a strike on the night of Nov. 17, confirming that a Zircon missile had been used in that attack. Prior to this, there had been no information available on the missile's appearance.

The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reported that at least three Russian Special Operations Forces operators were killed near Aleppo, Syria. Vadim Baykulov, the commander of the Special Operations Forces Training Center, who is well known to us from the time of the Russian military operation in Syria, was sent to Aleppo to oversee the evacuation of the bodies and to search for missing personnel.