Sitrep for Nov. 15-18, 2024 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3)

Frontline Situation Update

There have been almost no significant advancements along the frontline in recent days. In the Kurakhove direction, the situation continues to develop around the pocket along the Sukhi Yaly River. The Russian Armed Forces are attempting to encircle Ukrainian forces by closing the pincers near the village of Uspenivka. The expansion of contested areas indicates that intense fighting in this direction is ongoing, while the slowdown in Russian advances can likely be attributed to the redeployment of AFU’s 37th Naval Infantry Brigade to this section of the frontline.

The RuAF continue to advance along the northern shore of the Kurakhove Reservoir, having reached the village of Berestky.

In the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces captured the village of Hryhorivka, west of Selydove, expanding their narrow salient along the Solona River.

The most notable developments have occurred in the town of Chasiv Yar, where the AFU reportedly faces challenges in urban combat due to a shortage of personnel. It is worth noting that defending residential areas is far more complex under such conditions than fighting in open terrain. Russian soldiers appear to have taken advantage of the situation, advancing deeper into the main part of the city, the Oktyabrsky neighborhood, moving from building to building and using basements as cover. It will be extremely difficult to push them back. Fighting in the area began a month ago when Russian forces started crossing the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal first with small assault groups and then with armored vehicle columns.

A video of a strike on Russian forces in the village of Tavriia in the Zaporizhzhia region, northwest of Tokmak has emerged. Ukrainian soldiers from the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade used a drone with a thermal camera to locate a cluster of 20–30 Russian soldiers and vehicles, which were subsequently targeted by HIMARS MLRS with first high-explosive warheads and then cluster munitions. The exact number of casualties remains unknown at this time, but it is expected that such information will emerge soon.

Western Assistance

The most important news in recent days has been Joe Biden’s authorization of "limited use" of long-range precision ATACMS missiles against positions inside Russia, as per The Washington Post. Meanwhile, The New York Times offered a different wording, reporting that such strikes have been allowed specifically to defend AFU positions in the Kursk region. Axios also confirmed that the use of ATACMS is restricted to the Kursk region. The exact conditions for the employment of ATACMS remain unknown. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declined to comment, saying that "the missiles will speak for themselves." As before, the decision to relax restrictions was taken in response to Russia’s own actions, namely, the deployment of North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region.

Shortly after, the French Le Figaro reported that the UK and France had also authorized the use of their long-range missiles inside Russia. However, it later emerged that the item had been edited and the statement removed. In fact, such authorization had been granted much earlier, since neither country objected to their missiles being used deep into Russia, but since Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles contain American-made components, the US has the right to veto their use.

We hope that the authorization to use long-range precision missiles against military targets in Russia could reduce the number of unintended strikes on civilian infrastructure, thus lowering civilian casualties. This assessment stems from the fact that drones, being more rudimentary, are often at risk of crashing into high-rise buildings that are not properly mapped onto their flight paths. Ukraine, facing a shortage of precision missiles, is unlikely to expend them on punitive strikes against civilian areas, as it would not achieve any military objective. In contrast, strikes on military targets, where Western-supplied missiles can inflict significantly more damage than UAVs, would yield much greater returns.

There are still a number of military targets remaining within a 250-270 kilometer [155-170 mi] radius from the frontline, even though much of the Russian Air Force has already been withdrawn from these areas. Potential targets include railway bridges used for transporting military vehicles, concentrations of troops and field command posts. While strikes alone are unlikely to shift the tide of the war, the authorization to strike targets on Russian soil could be one of several factors contributing to renewed successes for the AFU.

Ukrainian officials provided commentary to The Financial Times, following the appearance of photos on Telegram channels showing a trainload of DPRK Koksan M1989 self-propelled howitzers. According to their information, North Korea has delivered 50 such artillery systems to Russia, along with 20 upgraded 240mm MLRS. In May 2024, the DPRK announced it had upgraded one of its 240mm MLRSs, which included the development of high-precision munitions. Reports in October indicated that the enhanced system had a maximum range of 67 km [42 mi], making it comparable to the HIMARS and Tornado-S MLRS. Analysts have suggested that North Korea might be supplying these systems to Russia as a means of field testing them under combat conditions.

Bloomberg sources within G20 countries, analyzing the progress of military cooperation between Russia and the DPRK, have suggested that the DPRK may send up to 100 thousand troops to Russia. However, this figure refers to the total number of personnel stationed on Russian territory over time, factoring in rotations, rather than a one-time deployment.

Ukrainian and Russian Strikes

In previous sitreps, we mentioned the widespread concerns about Russia potentially stockpiling Kh-101 cruise missiles for a large-scale strike on the Ukrainian power grid. In the early hours of Nov. 17, one of the most extensive combined strikes since the start of the full-scale invasion took place.

According to the Ukrainian Air Force, Russia used:

101 Kh-101 and 3M-54 Kalibr cruise missiles;
5 Kh-59/Kh-69 cruise missiles;
1 3M22 Zircon hypersonic missile (photos of the wreckage in Kyiv were published);

8 47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles;
1 9K720 Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile;
4 Kh-22/Kh-31P anti-radiation missiles;
90 UAVs of an unidentified type.

The attack targeted energy facilities, affecting most of the nuclear reactors in the territory controlled by Ukraine. According to IAEA staff in Ukraine, on Nov. 17, only 2 of the 9 reactors were generating electricity at full capacity, while other units had their output reduced to 40–90%. IAEA staff at the Khmelnitsky NPP reported explosions near the plant, while high-voltage power lines were disconnected at the Rivne NPP. A video showing cruise missiles hitting the power facility was published.

It is worth noting that during this attack, F-16 fighter aircraft once again demonstrated their effectiveness, having now become an integral part of Ukraine's air defense.

In Kyiv, debris fell in at least four districts, with the roof of a five-story residential building in the Pecherskyi district catching fire, injuring a woman. In Mykolaiv, two women were killed and several people were injured during a drone attack. In Dnipro, a man sustained shrapnel injuries, and explosions were also heard in Kryvyi Rih. As a result of three strikes on Zaporizhzhia, two men were injured. In the Dnipropetrovsk region, two railway workers were killed, and in Odesa, two dispatchers working at a Ukrenergo substation were killed. In Odesa, both electricity and water supply were affected.

In the Vinnytsia region, electricity supply was cut off following strikes on critical infrastructure, and in the Rivne region, both electricity and water supply were disrupted. Energy infrastructure in the Volyn region, which Russia attacks less frequently than other regions of Ukraine, was also damaged. As a result of the strike on a multi-story residential building in Sumy on the evening of Nov. 17, 11 people were killed, including two children, and 89 people were injured, including 10 children.

It later became known that a strike on Odesa by a 9K720 Iskander missile resulted in 10 killed and 43 injured.

The Associated Press reported that up to half of the drones launched by Russia against Ukraine in recent weeks were unarmed dummies—deployed solely to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defense systems. The Alabuga factory, which manufactures these drones, can produce approximately 40 decoy unarmed drones and about 10 equipped with warheads per day. We have previously noted that since mid-summer 2024, the number of drones used by Russia has surged dramatically. We suggested at the time that much of this increase was due to Gerbera decoy drones launched as false targets.

The article also mentions that Russia has begun equipping drones with thermobaric warheads, which create a cloud of combustible particles that ignite upon detonation. These warheads are particularly effective against shelters, such as buildings, dugouts or bunkers. The first reported use of Shahed-136 (Geran-2) loitering munitions with thermobaric warheads occurred last winter. In May 2024, a report by the Institute for Science and International Security referenced documents indicating that the Alabuga factory had ordered the warheads from a defense contractor.

Ukrainian military expert Serhii "Flash" Beskrestnov published an analysis of the unique features of fiber optic drones. Because these UAVs are controlled via wired communication rather than radio channels, they are immune to jamming devices. However, their use involves specific challenges, such as avoiding the entanglement of the fiber-optic cable with the drone’s propellers or obstacles on the ground.

According to the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel, Russia’s Minister of Defense Andrey Belousov has approved the Geostrategy of Modern Society training course for the senior command staff of the Russian Armed Forces. Notably, Vladimir Solovyev [Russian propagandist] was appointed as the 'scientific' supervisor of the program.