Sitrep for March 3-7, 2025 (as of 10 a.m. UTC+3) 

Frontline Situation Update

In the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian forces have retaken positions near the village of Uspenivka on the western flank of the Russian salient. After Russian advances in this sector largely stalled in early February, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched counterattacks. While these localized counterattacks have been relatively successful, they are unlikely to lead to a larger Ukrainian effort to reclaim occupied territory in this direction in the near future. This is not only due to Ukraine’s ongoing manpower shortages but also to the halt in US military aid. Under these conditions, the AFU command is likely to conserve resources—such as ammunition and armored vehicles—while continuing localized counterattacks with varying degrees of success.

According to the DeepState project, the pace of combat in the Pokrovsk direction continues to decline, a trend also observed in the South Donetsk direction.

In the Novopavlivka (Kurakhove) direction, the Russian MoD announced the capture of the village of Andriivka—apparently, like Toretsk, "on credit." If Andriivka had indeed been fully taken, we would expect to see footage of soldiers moving freely through the village, which has not yet been the case.

In the Kupiansk direction, Ukrainian forces recaptured some positions near the village of Zapadne on the right bank of the Oskil River, while the Russian Armed Forces made slight advances north of the village of Novomlynsk.

Significant changes have occurred only in the Kursk region. In the previous sitrep, we reported that the RuAF had brought the supply route to the town of Sudzha within fire range by clearing the border area between the villages of Sverdlikovo and Nikolayevo-Darino. Now, Russian drone operators have taken positions there and are targeting this road. In recent days, Russian forces have advanced significantly toward the same highway from the east, taking control of the village of Kurilovka and reaching the state border. The RuAF can now fire on the N-07 (or R-200) highway from both sides, disrupting the movement of Ukrainian military equipment, medical evacuations, troop rotations and supply deliveries. By cutting off AFU supply lines and depleting their reserves, the RuAF plans to fully clear the bridgehead in the future.

Russian drone operators reportedly set up ambushes to strike Ukrainian military equipment. Their positions are typically 5-7 km [3.1-4.3 mi] from major roads, allowing drones to fly to the roadway, hide and wait for enemy vehicles while conserving battery life. Both fiber-optic and radio-controlled drones are used. This is evident from videos where signal interference appears as the drone approaches its target, and the feed cuts out entirely before impact—a phenomenon absent in fiber-optic drones, whose video quality remains stable. It is possible that Russian forces have found a radio frequency not jammed by Ukrainian electronic warfare systems in this sector. Another challenge is the presence of destroyed or damaged vehicles abandoned on roads. These often need to be rammed or maneuvered around, forcing vehicles to slow down, increasing their vulnerability to drone strikes.

Serhii Sternenko, a Ukrainian far-right social activist and YouTuber, also noted that poor road conditions limit vehicle speeds to no more than 20 km/h [12.4 mi/h]. With the onset of the muddy season, the situation is expected to deteriorate further.

Ukrainian public figures have expressed serious concern over the situation. Sternenko described it as critical, while Ukrainian military expert Serhii "Flash" Beskrestnov suggested that the AFU should consider withdrawing from the Kursk region. In his view, the Kursk operation has already served its purpose in diverting RuAF resources but is unlikely to hold any further political value in negotiations.

Ukrainian and Russian Strikes

In the early hours of March 6, the RuAF struck a Nova Poshta terminal in the city of Sumy, resulting in the death of a contracting company employee.

On the evening of March 5, Russian troops launched an attack on the city of Kryvyi Rih using Iskander-M or KN-23 ballistic missiles, killing five civilians and injuring 32 others. At least one of the missiles hit the Tsentralnyi [Central] Hotel, where volunteers from a humanitarian organization—citizens of Ukraine, the USA and the UK—had checked in shortly before. In addition to the hotel, the strike damaged 14 apartment buildings, a post office, civilian vehicles, commercial properties and a cultural site.

In our previous sitrep, we reported a Russian strike on the Novomoskovskyi military training ground near the village of Cherkaske in the Dnipropetrovsk region on March 1. On March 4, Ukrainian forces reported a retaliatory strike on a Russian training ground in the Kherson region. In a video of the strike, the behavior of the alleged RuAF soldiers appeared suspicious at the moment cluster munitions detonated nearby—they did not move. In other videos of attacks on troop concentrations, soldiers either fell or scattered in different directions.

Western Assistance

In a striking development, CIA Director John Ratcliffe has officially confirmed that the United States has completely halted not only military aid to Ukraine but also intelligence sharing. According to Mike Waltz, the US national security adviser, intelligence sharing has been paused until a date for peace negotiations is set. Beyond intelligence on targets deep within Russia, this decision also affects civilian populations, which had previously received advance warnings of Russian bomber movement and, consequently, strikes on targets across Ukrainian territory. Now, they will have to rely solely on their own data and European intelligence, which has significantly fewer capabilities. European nations can provide imagery intelligence—satellite photos of terrain featuring Russian troop positions, convoy movements and other visual data. However, with the United States operating far more satellites, the information it supplies to allies is markedly more comprehensive. This stems from the fact that satellites can capture images of a specific area only once every few days, with cloud cover or darkness potentially obstructing the process. It is worth noting that the Serhiy Prytula Foundation has gained access to radar satellites. Additionally, the US possesses electronic intelligence satellites, likely the best in the world, costing billions of dollars. Moreover, as The New York Times reported in early 2024, the CIA positioned electronic intelligence equipment near the frontline to intercept data on the RuAF.

In a previous sitrep, we noted that US allies are seeking ways to safeguard highly classified information from potential leaks under Donald Trump’s new administration. NBC News, citing four sources, confirmed that member countries of the "Five Eyes" intelligence alliance are revising protocols for sharing intelligence, driven by concerns that such data could "leak" from Washington to Moscow.

A curious fact about the Trump administration's activities: Trump recently cited as an example of wasteful spending the allocation of $8 billion by the previous administration to "make mice transgender." In reality, the grant funded experiments with transgenic mice to develop treatments for humans.

Amid the suspension of USAID programs, the Japanese agency JICA is reportedly stepping in to finance Ukrainian projects related to the restoration of energy infrastructure.

In May 2024, Sweden announced the transfer of an ASC 890 airborne surveillance and control aircraft to Ukraine. However, the delivery has likely been delayed due to the need for final US approval, as the aircraft contains American-made equipment.

On March 6, the EU held an emergency summit where European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen proposed ReArm Europe, a €800 billion [$866 billion] plan to rearm Europe. Over the next four years, EU members will have to allocate €650 billion [$704 billion] outside standard national debt restrictions, while the EU will contribute the remaining €150 billion [$162 billion]—despite defense not being formally within its remit. Air and missile defense systems, artillery and drones have been identified as priorities.

Norway has announced an increase in military aid to Ukraine this year from $3.2 billion to $7.8 billion. The Netherlands intends to invest €700 million [$758M] in drone production, mostly in Ukraine. On top of that, the country’s Prime Minister has reserved €3.5 billion [$3.79 billion] to continue supporting Ukraine in 2026. France is planning to carry on the practice of handing over its decommissioned equipment to Ukraine, including AMX-10RC armored vehicles, VAB armored personnel carriers and surface-to-air missiles.

A group of Western military experts has developed a proposal to defend western Ukraine against Russian air attacks during potential peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow. The plan called SkyShield involves the deployment of about 120 European fighter jets in neighboring countries to patrol the skies over the western and central parts of Ukraine, deterring Russian air raids. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Air Force would be responsible for patrolling the eastern regions, where the shortage of air defense systems would pose a significantly greater risk.

Last fall, we reported on plans by the German automotive and arms manufacturer Rheinmetall to build four plants in Ukraine. According to CEO Armin Papperger, four types of German military vehicles are planned to be repaired and serviced in Ukraine: Leopard 2A4/A6 and Leopard 1A5 tanks, PzH 2000 self-propelled howitzers and Marder 1A3 infantry fighting vehicles. Leopard 1A5 tanks and Marder 1A3 IFVs are already being repaired in Ukraine. Rheinmetall plans to establish at least four facilities in Ukraine: a plant for armored vehicle repairs, a gunpowder plant, an ammunition production facility and an air defense systems plant. However, it remains unclear how these facilities will be protected from Russian missile strikes.

Reuters reported that Trump may revoke the Temporary Protected Status of Ukrainian refugees in the US. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt called this report false. However, when asked by journalists, Trump stated that his administration does not want to harm Ukrainian refugees and that he will soon decide whether to revoke their status.

As part of a government spending optimization program managed by DOGE, the McAlester Army Ammunition Plant in Oklahoma—which fills artillery shells and air-dropped bombs, including those sent to Israel—is cutting more than half of its workforce. MCAAP is responsible for producing and refurbishing conventional munitions and related components, covering a wide range from 20mm shells to large air-dropped bombs. It also serves as the largest munitions storage facility in the US, holding about one-third of the Department of Defense's total arsenal. This decision raises concerns about possible impacts on US national security, defense capabilities and combat readiness.

Next week, Emmanuel Macron, Keir Starmer and Volodymyr Zelenskyy are scheduled to visit Washington, where they will present Trump with a plan to resolve the Ukrainian crisis.

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