Sitrep for April 25-28, 2025 (as of 7:30 a.m. UTC+3)

Frontline Situation Update

As in the previous week, positional fighting continues along most of the frontline. In the Zaporizhzhia and Kupiansk directions, things have quieted down after a brief period of intensified activity, likely due to the depletion of reserves. The hottest sectors remain the Kursk and Pokrovsk-Toretsk directions.

In the Kursk region, the Russian Armed Forces, according to a statement from Russia’s Ministry of Defense on April 19, allegedly liberated the village of Oleshnya. On April 25, reports mentioned ongoing fighting "in the area of the villages of Gornal and Oleshnya," and on April 26, the ministry announced the liberation of the village of Gornal and the alleged expulsion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine beyond the region's borders.

At the same time, General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the RuAF, reported to Putin that the Kursk operation had concluded.

A video has emerged showing a private house with a Russian soldier waving a flag on the roof. As is always the case in such situations, we believe it is premature to draw definitive conclusions about full Russian control over this village.

Although fighting near Oleshnya and Gornal has been ongoing for some time, it is not yet possible to confirm their complete liberation, let alone a breakthrough to the state border. Almost immediately after the official announcements of these villages’ capture, Russian pro-military bloggers posted reports disagreeing with these claims.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the General Staff of the AFU officially denied claims of the complete liberation of the Kursk region. On April 26, DeepState reported that fighting was still ongoing in the area. Their map shows the presence of the AFU on a small patch of land near the village of Tyotkino, where the only inhabited place is the hamlet of Otruba (which had a population of just one person in 2010). We last heard about combat operations in this area at the beginning of the Kursk operation and assumed that Ukrainian forces likely did not establish a firm foothold there. Moreover, it remains unclear to what extent the hamlet has been destroyed by Russian strikes and shelling. Controlling this area is fairly meaningless, but expelling Ukrainian troops from it would be difficult, as the border territory is separated by the wide floodplain of the Seym River. Most likely, in the absence of news about the liberation or expansion of territory under AFU control since late August 2024, this area remains marked as part of the Kursk foothold. Supporting this theory is the fact that this area was not mentioned in the official denials of the region's full liberation.

Similarly, on the DeepState map, the village of Sotnytskyi Kozachok on the border of Kharkiv and Belgorod regions has been marked as under RuAF control since Nov. 16, 2024. However, it is hard to imagine that they have actually occupied and maintained control over this village for five months. Even if Oleshnya and Gornal are completely liberated, it will still be dangerous for civilians to return to these and other settlements in the border areas for a long time.

It is also worth noting that Russian authorities have finally officially recognized the participation of North Korean soldiers in combat in the Kursk region. Following this, pro-Russian bloggers began praising the DPRK soldiers suggesting that it would not have been possible to eliminate the Kursk bridgehead without their involvement. They also published footage featuring these soldiers. We categorically disagree with this interpretation of events, as in many cases, UAV footage captured the absolute unpreparedness of North Korean units for modern warfare. According to the Yonhap news agency, citing the Central Telegraph Agency of Korea, the DPRK authorities also acknowledged the participation of their troops in combat within the Kursk region. The troop transfer reportedly took place in accordance with the comprehensive strategic partnership agreement between the Russian Federation and the DPRK. It remains unclear whether North Korean soldiers will continue to fight on the RuAF side, as reports indicate the completion of the "operation to liberate the Kursk region to repel the adventurous invasion of Ukrainian authorities into the Russian Federation."

General Valery Gerasimov in his report also mentioned the contribution of the "underground assault force"—however, we still believe that these troops were unable to make a noticeable impact on the fighting for the town of Sudzha. When compared to the battles for Avdiivka and the breakthrough at "Tsarska Okhota," the difference becomes even more apparent, because in the latter case Russian soldiers were able to gain a foothold on the outskirts of the residential sector, while they failed to do so on the outskirts of Sudzha.

Russian forces continue their attempts to advance from the village of Basivka in the Sumy region toward the village of Loknia—videos of Russian assaults by small groups have been published. However, they are still unable to achieve any significant advances.

On the Novopavlivka (Kurakhove) direction (the southwestern flank of the Pokrovsk direction), the RuAF managed to capture the village of Nadezhdynka. Minor advances in this direction do not in any way confirm the assumption that Russia intends to enter the Dnipropetrovsk region by May 9. Moreover, after the announcements of the complete liberation of the Kursk region, there is no longer a need for such symbolic "victories."

Peace Talks

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal informed that the agreement on joint mineral extraction between Ukraine and the United States should not take into account the military assistance provided by Washington prior to the signing of the document. This is quite unexpected, as previously for Donald Trump, the issue of compensation for earlier military aid deliveries was a matter of principle. It remains unclear to us how the fund will operate under these terms and whether such an agreement implies further US assistance.

According to Bloomberg, contracts with dozens of specialists who had been working on cybersecurity for hundreds of Ukrainian facilities have been canceled or frozen leaving Ukraine more vulnerable to Russian hacker attacks on power plants, government infrastructure and other critical IT targets. Previously, the United States had funded the provision of computer equipment, software and personnel, with USAID investing more than $200 million in support of Ukrainian cybersecurity over the past five years. That funding has now been halted.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia must be signed imminently—within this week—or Washington will have to consider withdrawing from the negotiation process. Among the "other issues" that the United States might then focus on, according to some reports, is the possible resumption of talks with North Korea.

Reuters published drafts of the proposed settlement for the war—including the US proposal and Ukraine’s counterproposal.

The US-prepared draft peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine includes the following provisions:

• The United States provides de jure recognition of Russian control of Crimea.
• The United States provides de facto recognition of Russian control of the Luhansk region and Russian-controlled parts of the Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Kherson regions.
• Ukraine regains territory in the Kharkiv region.
• Ukraine regains control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant through US control and administration of the plant, with electricity distributed to both sides, and also the Kakhovka Dam (exact mechanism not specified).
• Ukraine enjoys unhindered passage on the Dnipro River and control of the Kinburn Spit.
• The United States and Ukraine will implement economic cooperation/minerals agreement.
• Ukraine to be fully reconstructed and compensated financially (source of compensation not specified).
• Sanctions on Russia resulting from this conflict since 2014 will be removed, and US-Russian economic cooperation on energy and other industrial sectors will be resumed.

The Ukrainian version of the agreement envisions the following:

• Territorial issues will be discussed and resolved only after a full and unconditional ceasefire, with negotiations starting based on the current line of control.
• Ukraine regains control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant with US involvement, and also the Kakhovka Dam.
• Ukraine enjoys unhindered passages on the Dnipro River and control of the Kinburn Spit.
• The United States and Ukraine will implement economic cooperation/minerals agreement.
• Ukraine will be fully reconstructed and compensated financially, including through Russian sovereign assets that will remain frozen until Russia compensates damage to Ukraine.
• US sanctions imposed on Russia since 2014 may be subject to gradual easing after a sustainable peace is achieved and subject to resumption in the event of a breach of the peace agreement (snapback).

American officials have made it clear that their proposal represents a final offer that must be accepted without further amendments. Otherwise, the United States will withdraw from the negotiations.

In an interview with CBS News, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that Russia welcomes the initiative of the American side to halt the war and agrees to an unconditional ceasefire, but wants guarantees that the ceasefire will not be used again to strengthen the Ukrainian army. Therefore, the West must cease its supply of weapons to Ukraine. It should be noted that the public positions of Russian officials and the concessions they are actually willing to make—as communicated to American intermediaries behind closed doors—may differ. Thus, if an agreement is eventually reached that involves Russian concessions, this information might only become known after the fact.

Additionally, Lavrov said that Russia had not received a proposal from the United States regarding the transfer of control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, and if such a proposal were received, Russia would explain that transferring control is impossible.

It is worth noting that during his meeting with Steve Witkoff, Vladimir Putin stated that Russia is ready to begin negotiations with Kyiv without preconditions. However, since Putin does not recognize the legitimacy of Volodymyr Zelenskyy, it remains unclear whether he means direct negotiations without the United States acting as an intermediary. Meanwhile, Ukrainian representatives have said they are prepared to freeze the war along the current frontline without preconditions. These are very different positions, and they should not be equated.

Sabotage Acts

On April 25, in Balashikha, Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the RuAF, General Yaroslav Moskalik, was killed in an explosion. He died at the scene. A remotely controlled explosive device detonated in a car as Moskalik was passing by. The Federal Security Service (FSB) released a video showing the arrest of Ignat Kuzin, a native of the Sumy region, as well as footage from his interrogation. At the same time, according to some pro-Kremlin media, Kuzin was detained in Turkey. It is worth noting that in July 2024, another saboteur was detained in Turkey following the explosion of a Toyota Land Cruiser carrying a General Staff officer. Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets claims that the killed general was responsible for regular planning, coordination and preparation of reports on the conduct of combined missile strikes against Ukrainian territory, including target selection, justification for the strike, detailed planning and allocation of the necessary forces and resources. There is no independent confirmation of this information. We believe that the murder of one general will not have a significant impact on the course of the war and is more of a symbolic act of retaliation.

In the early hours of April 18 in Bryansk, the head of the design bureau of the Bryansk Electromechanical Plant, Yevgeny Rytykov, and his deputy were killed in a car explosion. Rytykov was involved in the modernization of the Krasukha electronic warfare system.

Vazhnyye Istorii, an independent Russian investigative media outlet, has discovered that in the spring of 2024, while fighting in Ukraine as part of the RuAF, Michael Gloss, the son of the CIA's Deputy Director for Digital Innovation Julianne Gallina Gloss, was killed. While traveling the world, the young man became interested in Islam, and the idea of a "multipolar world" promoted by Vladimir Putin. Upon arriving in Russia, he created an account on the VKontakte social network and subscribed to groups dedicated to communism, Lenin and Stalin. In December 2023, he signed a contract with the Russian army and was deployed to the frontline, where he was killed on April 4, 2024, in the Donetsk region as part of an assault unit. US authorities and his family confirmed Michael’s death, stating that he suffered from a mental illness, which likely contributed to his demise.

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