Sitrep for Sept. 26-29, 2025 (as of 7:30 a.m. UTC+3)
Frontline Situation Update
In the Kharkiv region, in the Kupiansk direction, the Russian Armed Forces continue to advance gradually in the town of Kupiansk. They have already moved close to the Yuvileinyi residential area and the town’s supply route. On Sept. 27, the DeepState map expanded the contested area to reach the road leading southwest.
Andriy Besedin, head of the Kupiansk City Military Administration, told the Ukrainian television channel Suspilne that the town is now closed to civilian traffic and accessible only to military personnel. This decision comes rather late, given that fighting for Kupiansk has been ongoing for more than a month and Russian soldiers have already begun infiltrating the town, sometimes in civilian clothing. Moreover, Russian forces have been stationed outside Kupiansk’s outskirts for an extended period.
It is worth noting that whenever Russian forces approach a settlement, the risks to civilians rise sharply. Recent examples include the villages of Yarova and Shandryholove in the Lyman direction. A similar danger is now growing in the town of Kostiantynivka, where Russian soldiers are now present in the dacha settlements on the town’s southeastern outskirts.
It is also worth noting that although evacuations from the town of Pokrovsk have been underway since the summer of 2024, they were already hampered by artillery strikes as the RuAF closed in. Only in the following winter did local authorities announce the evacuation of all children. Nonetheless, civilians continue to remain in the town; in mid‑August, Vadym Filashkin, head of the Donetsk Regional Military Administration, reported that more than a thousand non‑combatants were still present in Pokrovsk.
In the Dobropillia direction, Russian forces have reached the village of Dorozhnie, west of Zapovidne (formerly Nykanorivka until 2024), as confirmed by video footage from Dorozhne. The appearance of Russian soldiers in this area indicates that it remains impossible to define precisely where the zone controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine ends and the contested "grey zone" begins. Although the DeepState map depicts the remaining part of the Dobropillia salient as cut off by a narrow isthmus, in reality the situation for Russian forces appears somewhat less precarious than the map suggests.
Fighting is also taking place in this direction near the village of Volodymyrivka, involving previously redeployed Russian naval infantry units. A video has surfaced showing a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian marine (warning: graphic content).
On the western flank of the Pokrovsk direction, the RuAF advanced slightly in the villages of Udachne and Kotlyne. In recent months, developments in this sector have been mixed.
Meanwhile, on the southern section of the frontline, Russian forces continued their offensive in the eastern districts of the Dnipropetrovsk region, with reported gains in the villages of Verbove and Berezove.
Russia’s Ministry of Defense announced the capture of the village of Maiske, north of Chasiv Yar. On the DeepState map, Maiske is located close to the frontline, making its reported capture plausible. However, the claim is undermined by the Ministry’s own map, which depicts Maiske as already located deep in Russian-controlled territory.
Western Assistance
Last week in New York, the United Nations General Assembly convened, after which new details emerged about negotiations on US arms deliveries to Ukraine. According to sources cited by The Telegraph, during a closed-door meeting with the US president, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy once again raised the issue of obtaining Tomahawk missiles. Ukraine had previously been denied access to them, even when the discussion involved possible transfers through European countries. The missiles were reportedly included in the $90 billion list of desired weapons purchases that Zelenskyy presented to Trump. Funding for them could be provided either through a "reparations loan" mechanism or another channel.
In an interview with Axios, Zelenskyy did not name the Tomahawk specifically but stressed the need for long-range weapons. He argued that the mere possession of such missiles, even without deploying them, could serve as a deterrent and push Putin to the negotiating table. Trump’s own stance on the request remains unclear, but his remarks before the General Assembly cast doubt on the likelihood of such transfers. According to an Axios source, the US president declined to include the missiles in the PURL program.
Vice President J.D. Vance told Fox News that the US administration is reviewing the request, but the final decision rests with the president. This week, Ukrainian officials will travel to Washington for meetings with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and other members of the Trump administration, possibly including Elbridge Colby, who had previously opposed weapons transfers to Ukraine. These talks will likely cover not only Tomahawk missiles but also other long-range weapons such as ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles.
Zelenskyy’s statement that the possession of powerful long-range missiles could force Putin to negotiate suggests that similar earlier declarations—for example, Fire Point’s announcements about ramping up production of its Flamingo missile—may also have been intended to pressure Russia.
In addition, Ukrainian and US representatives are discussing the possible export of Ukrainian drones to the United States.
International News
In April, we summarized a Sunday Times article on Russia’s espionage activities against the United Kingdom at sea and underwater. The Financial Times has since published an in-depth piece on the Russian oceanographic vessel Yantar, which Western countries often describe as a spy ship. Officially a civilian vessel, Yantar is widely believed to be used by Russia’s MoD for intelligence operations. It is equipped with a wide array of technical devices that allow not only for mapping, but also for locating pipelines and cables, as well as deploying deep-sea vehicles capable of installing wiretaps or placing explosive charges on undersea cables. After the start of the full-scale invasion, the ship stayed in port for some time, but in November 2024, it resumed extended missions, including a 97-day voyage along routes of critical infrastructure off Europe’s Atlantic coast. A vessel resembling Yantar sailed along two cables linking Svalbard to Norway, and it was also photographed in the Irish Sea in an area where three major cables connect Ireland and the United Kingdom.
On Sept. 27, the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reported that the Black Sea Fleet submarine Novorossiysk, currently on combat duty in the Mediterranean, was experiencing serious technical issues. Due to damage in its fuel system, fuel was allegedly leaking directly into the bilge. The report claimed that the submarine lacked both spare parts and qualified specialists, and that the crew was unable to repair the malfunction.
Norwegian independent naval expert Thord Are Iversen noted, however, that the auxiliary vessel Yakov Grebelsky is operating alongside the Novorossiysk in the Mediterranean. As a logistics and support ship, Yakov Grebelsky can provide repairs and resupply, take the submarine’s crew on board in an emergency and tow the submarine to the Russian naval base in Tartus for further work. It is therefore misleading to portray the situation as if the submarine had broken down without support and its crew were in distress. In addition, both the Novorossiysk and the Yakov Grebelsky recently called at the port of Algiers, where they were able to replenish supplies, receive support and carry out minor repairs if necessary. Thus, presenting the situation as “a stranded submarine without help” is inaccurate.
The rumor also overlooks the fact that Project 636.3 diesel-electric submarines, such as the Novorossiysk, routinely make long passages on the surface rather than submerged, since underwater they run on batteries that last only for short periods. For this reason, transiting most of the route through the Black Sea, the Bosporus and into the Mediterranean on the surface is standard practice.
Europe has decided to build a "drone wall." Commissioner for Defense and Space Andrius Kubilius announced that the multi-layered system will include ground surveillance radars, acoustic detection systems, software for exchanging data on aerial targets, and machine guns to shoot down low-tech drones. Brussels will provide "financial and industrial assistance" to countries after agreeing on a "common approach" to this issue.
Ukrainian and Russian Strikes
On the night of Sept. 28, the RuAF launched a combined airstrike on Kyiv. According to the AFU Air Force, the attack involved two Kinzhal hypersonic missiles, eight 3M-54 Kalibr cruise missiles, 38 Kh-101 cruise missiles and nearly 600 UAVs. As a result of the strike, four people were killed, including a 12-year-old girl, and 13 others, among them one minor, were injured.
Strikes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure have also intensified. On Sept. 26, Russian UAVs hit the Nizhyn electrical substation and the Chernihiv Central Heating and Power Plant in the Chernihiv region. Energy facilities in the Zaporizhzhia region were also targeted.
Possibly in response, President Zelenskyy warned that if a blackout threatens, for example, Ukraine’s capital, Moscow must know that a blackout will also occur in Russia’s capital. He stressed that "civilized countries differ from barbaric ones in that they never strike first and are not aggressors; however, this does not mean they are weak." We believe that strikes on the energy sector do not affect the course of the war.
On Sept. 27, as a result of missile strikes on Belgorod, five people were injured, including two minors. Photographs from one of the impact sites show a large crater. On the same day, during a drone attack on a manufacturing facility in Shebekino, three employees were injured, and on Sept. 28, as a result of a UAV detonation in the village of Novostroyevka-Pervaya, a civilian was killed.
On Sept. 28, the AFU attacked Belgorod’s energy infrastructure, with strikes recorded on an electrical substation and a CHP plant, resulting in electricity and water outages in the city and neighboring settlements. By the afternoon of Sept. 29, authorities reported that the disruptions had been mostly resolved.
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